NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	6.2 [542]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +13.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	88		Comeback	2.6 [612]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -18.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.03	-0.02	13	68%	0.15	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.04
Joe Dumars	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	13	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	9	58%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Terry Mills	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	19	44%	-0.01	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.03

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.00	19	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	2	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	23	43%	-0.04	3	-0.10	7	100%	0.04
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	18	39%	-0.07	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	25.2	15.4	21.3	1.5	31.2	118.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +35.9%

DET +5.6%

MIN -7.0%

DET +14.8%

DET +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIN	NBA	DET	MIN	NBA
this game	17.0	15.0	15.6	102.2	97.8	104.4
season	17.1	15.5		107.6	103.3
opponent	15.5	16.2		105.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.4	15.8	18.5	17.8	17.0
MIN	13.6	13.0	18.4	15.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	69	68	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.35	17	-13	30	16.5	18.8	-2.27	15.0	15.0	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	75	75	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.36	7	-3	10	16.7	18.7	-1.97	15.4	12.9	2.53
Joe Dumars	65	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.38	3	1	2	17.4	16.1	1.30	14.6	16.0	-1.42
Aaron McKie	38	40	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	-6	16	16.2	17.6	-1.45	16.5	13.8	2.74
Theo Ratliff	49	49	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.14	4	0	4	16.9	17.1	-0.23	15.9	13.9	2.02
Grant Hill	71	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.38	-7	11	-18	17.7	14.6	3.03	14.4	17.0	-2.58
Grant Long	33	34	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.31	-7	11	-18	18.3	16.3	2.07	15.1	14.9	0.22
Michael Curry	21	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	5	-6	16.4	17.2	-0.77	13.8	15.3	-1.59
Terry Mills	29	29	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.04	-6	10	-16	17.0	17.0	-0.08	13.3	15.8	-2.51

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	13	13	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-8	12	12.7	15.4	-2.67	18.7	16.7	1.95
Chris Carr	33	33	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.15	5	-9	14	15.9	14.4	1.52	17.3	16.9	0.40
Kevin Garnett	80	78	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.44	10	-14	24	15.1	13.6	1.55	17.5	13.8	3.68
Sam Mitchell	39	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.28	2	-6	8	14.5	15.4	-0.87	18.9	15.6	3.29
James Robinson	9	11	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	6	-16	13.0	15.2	-2.20	9.1	18.1	-9.04
Dean Garrett	56	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	6	-16	15.4	14.2	1.19	16.8	17.4	-0.63
Tom Gugliotta	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	0	-4	15.2	12.6	2.61	16.9	18.2	-1.23
Doug West	60	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	5	-14	14.1	16.7	-2.53	16.8	17.4	-0.57
Stephon Marbury	77	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	4	-12	15.4	12.7	2.67	16.7	18.7	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0	93.3%
HOU 93, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.68,0.73,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.02,0.01,0	92.7%
NJN 86, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.36,0.06,0.13,0	92.1%