NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	107		Excitement	7.1 [460]		MVP	Troy Williams (SAC): +13.8%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	2.5 [239]		LVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): -21.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Williams	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	9	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.12	0.04	0.05	15	69%	0.16	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Nemanja Bjelica	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.10	-0.01	-0.00	13	70%	0.11	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Mason	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	7	41%	0.02	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Justin Jackson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	15	41%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
De'Aaron Fox	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.04	-0.00	13	45%	0.10	5	-0.15	5	40%	-0.03
Marvin Bagley III	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	7	56%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	17	50%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	15	53%	0.12	2	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mohamed Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	78%	0.08	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.04	7	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	11	54%	0.02	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	13	43%	-0.07	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.00	13	32%	-0.14	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.8	29.6	14.6	22.5	2.5	34.2	129.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +51.2%

ORL -5.3%

ORL -17.1%

SAC +20.6%

SAC +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	12.9	14.7	14.3	102.9	94.3	109.3
season	13.3	14.9		109.2	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		107.2	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.5	12.5	13.0	12.5	12.9
ORL	12.3	15.2	16.4	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Buddy Hield	84	84	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-5	18	12.0	16.6	-4.62	15.5	11.5	3.95
Nemanja Bjelica	69	68	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.28	5	3	2	12.0	14.5	-2.44	14.9	14.2	0.68
Willie Cauley-Stein	64	66	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	-5	18	12.0	14.2	-2.25	15.2	13.8	1.46
Justin Jackson	45	44	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.07	9	-1	10	13.1	12.7	0.39	14.6	14.8	-0.20
Frank Mason	45	46	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-3	14	14.3	11.7	2.59	13.2	15.8	-2.57
Troy Williams	74	75	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	7	-6	13.2	11.9	1.31	14.1	16.2	-2.17
Kosta Koufos	28	26	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	5	-2	13.9	12.5	1.36	13.9	14.9	-1.01
De'Aaron Fox	66	68	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.35	-13	21	-34	12.2	14.0	-1.79	15.3	13.6	1.64
Marvin Bagley III	45	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	15.0	11.2	3.84	14.3	15.0	-0.76

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerian Grant	45	42	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-10	12	14.2	15.0	-0.77	15.2	11.3	3.90
Mohamed Bamba	50	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-7	6	14.6	14.8	-0.24	15.1	11.0	4.08
Nikola Vucevic	62	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.16	-3	-5	2	14.7	14.7	0.06	11.7	14.7	-3.04
Terrence Ross	60	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-6	4	14.0	15.6	-1.56	13.3	12.3	0.95
Evan Fournier	60	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-4	0	15.3	13.8	1.47	12.8	12.9	-0.08
Jonathan Isaac	58	59	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	15.0	14.3	0.70	11.1	15.1	-4.00
Jonathon Simmons	57	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	2	-12	13.8	15.8	-2.00	13.1	12.6	0.45
Aaron Gordon	73	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	-2	-4	15.2	13.4	1.84	13.4	11.7	1.68
D.J. Augustin	60	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	2	-12	15.0	14.2	0.77	11.3	15.2	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 118, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.03,0.09,0.02,0	93.8%
DET 92, MIN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.13,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.16,0	93.3%
MIL 100, WAS 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0	93.1%