NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	118		Excitement	7.8 [262]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +41.8%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	2.6 [43]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -20.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	21	65%	0.37	6	-0.15	13	100%	0.12
Mikki Moore	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.04	0.02	12	79%	0.23	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.01	17	63%	0.25	5	-0.11	12	83%	0.03
Shelden Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	-0.02	-0.05	11	36%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Douby	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	12	32%	-0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.42	0.42	0.37	0.09	0.05	24	87%	0.50	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Linas Kleiza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	16	60%	0.12	4	-0.06	15	87%	0.04
Chucky Atkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	48%	0.05	3	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	6	17%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	7	29%	-0.06	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	14	37%	-0.09	4	-0.11	7	43%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.0	32.0	16.4	27.6	2.7	47.1	156.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +8.7%

SAC +26.5%

SAC +3.2%

SAC +3.4%

SAC +8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	11.9	15.4	110.3	105.5	105.7
season	14.9	13.3		105.6	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.2	13.8	14.7	18.0	14.8
DEN	12.1	12.0	12.0	11.5	11.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	68	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-8	19	15.9	12.8	3.15	12.5	10.8	1.72
Kevin Martin	89	90	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	-1	5	14.7	15.4	-0.71	12.4	9.4	3.06
Mikki Moore	90	90	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.39	3	0	3	15.3	12.1	3.25	12.1	11.2	0.90
Francisco Garcia	75	77	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	-2	7	14.5	15.6	-1.14	11.9	11.8	0.17
John Salmons	87	89	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.45	-4	7	-11	15.1	13.5	1.53	11.8	12.1	-0.31
Anthony Johnson	42	43	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.16	3	0	3	15.2	14.5	0.65	12.0	11.9	0.09
Quincy Douby	30	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	2	-1	14.5	14.9	-0.46	9.5	12.8	-3.33
Lorenzen Wright	5	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	2	-1	8.2	15.1	-6.92	12.3	11.9	0.41
Shelden Williams	49	48	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.16	-9	12	-21	13.0	16.3	-3.27	11.2	12.5	-1.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	25	26	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-8	13	11.5	12.0	-0.49	15.2	14.7	0.47
Anthony Carter	53	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	0	-3	12.2	11.6	0.64	14.5	15.1	-0.66
Chucky Atkins	12	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	6	-15	11.8	11.9	-0.07	15.2	14.7	0.51
Linas Kleiza	79	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-6	9	11.3	13.4	-2.12	15.7	12.5	3.21
Allen Iverson	97	95	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.51	6	-9	15	11.9	11.8	0.07	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Eduardo Najera	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	7	-17	11.8	12.0	-0.17	14.2	15.6	-1.35
J.R. Smith	56	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-3	3	11.6	12.2	-0.64	15.1	14.5	0.66
Marcus Camby	74	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-2	1	12.1	11.5	0.61	14.5	15.5	-0.98
Carmelo Anthony	85	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	3	-9	12.4	10.0	2.44	14.5	15.7	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.03,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.11,0.02,0,0	93.8%
NOH 100, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.14,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	93.5%
MIL 90, CLE 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.33,0.14,0.07,0,0,0	93.5%