NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	5.3 [733]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +20.4%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	1.7 [212]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -10.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.06	0.01	12	84%	0.23	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	20	64%	0.22	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Keith Askins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	60%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ike Austin	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Pinckney	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	13	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.07	-0.01	17	65%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	11	81%	0.19	5	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Jerome Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Litterial Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	54%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.02	4	67%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	9	43%	-0.06	1	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	12	57%	-0.00	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	27.7	16.0	23.0	1.8	28.2	121.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.1%

MIA +2.2%

DET -1.0%

MIA +12.1%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.2	18.3	15.6	128.6	119.3	104.4
season	15.8	17.1		103.1	107.6
opponent	16.2	16.3		102.0	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	15.0	19.6	17.7	16.2
DET	18.0	17.7	19.3	18.3	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	78	77	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.22	12	-3	15	16.3	15.7	0.59	18.3	18.3	-0.05
Ike Austin	54	55	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.18	12	-3	15	16.7	15.4	1.27	18.9	17.0	1.95
Voshon Lenard	73	71	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.11	12	-3	15	15.9	18.3	-2.37	18.7	16.1	2.58
P.J. Brown	68	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.13	10	-1	11	16.1	16.6	-0.51	18.1	19.1	-0.97
Jamal Mashburn	62	64	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	2	5	16.3	16.0	0.35	19.3	14.9	4.33
Keith Askins	47	45	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	4	1	15.8	16.8	-1.02	17.2	19.6	-2.48
Willie Anderson	1	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	9	-9	21.0	16.2	4.84	7.0	18.6	-11.57
John Crotty	20	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.20	-8	17	-25	16.8	16.0	0.77	17.5	18.5	-0.97
Ed Pinckney	17	15	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	14	-19	16.2	16.2	0.03	16.7	18.6	-1.98

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	26	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-12	15	17.7	18.5	-0.81	14.4	17.0	-2.64
Terry Mills	23	24	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-10	11	17.4	18.6	-1.24	14.5	16.9	-2.46
Jerome Williams	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	9.0	18.4	-9.40	23.0	16.1	6.87
Litterial Green	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	9.0	18.4	-9.40	23.0	16.1	6.87
Michael Curry	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-11	13	9.0	18.4	-9.40	23.0	16.1	6.87
Aaron McKie	51	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-9	9	17.7	19.3	-1.61	16.0	16.5	-0.50
Grant Hill	64	67	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-2	-5	18.8	16.5	2.29	16.7	14.5	2.19
Theo Ratliff	49	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	2	-13	18.4	18.1	0.39	16.4	15.9	0.52
Joe Dumars	68	68	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	2	-13	17.9	20.1	-2.25	16.3	15.8	0.50
Otis Thorpe	54	56	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	2	-13	19.5	16.0	3.47	16.8	15.0	1.77
Lindsey Hunter	77	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.16	-15	6	-21	18.5	15.7	2.83	16.2	16.5	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 104, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.8%
BOS 88, POR 78	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
HOU 113, GSW 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.09,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	94.0%