NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	96		Excitement	8.3 [197]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (SEA): +14.6%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	4.6 [318]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -31.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	13	69%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.06
Sam Perkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	4	70%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.04
Shawn Kemp	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.03	15	65%	0.14	6	-0.11	10	60%	0.00
Eric Snow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	20	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.09
Larry Stewart	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jim McIlvaine	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Craig Ehlo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	4	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate McMillan	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	5	17%	-0.14	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.10

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.03,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	19	67%	0.29	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.02
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.05	13	71%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.05
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	5	58%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.05
Ike Austin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	15	50%	-0.02	4	-0.15	6	67%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.31	-0.31	-0.10	-0.20	0.00	6	7%	-0.31	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.01	11	28%	-0.19	3	-0.13	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.7	25.0	16.7	27.1	2.5	44.2	145.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +10.3%

SEA +16.1%

MIA -9.9%

SEA +29.6%

SEA +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIA	NBA	SEA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	15.6	103.2	102.2	104.4
season	14.9	15.8		108.9	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.2		98.3	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.4	17.4	16.4	14.2	15.8
MIA	14.6	16.1	14.3	15.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	74	72	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.39	8	-7	15	15.6	16.4	-0.75	15.3	15.0	0.31
Shawn Kemp	79	78	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-5	11	15.9	15.3	0.58	15.1	15.6	-0.48
Gary Payton	86	87	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.48	-3	4	-7	15.5	18.6	-3.02	15.1	16.8	-1.75
Terry Cummings	30	29	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	-7	15	17.1	15.1	1.96	16.6	14.5	2.07
Craig Ehlo	31	30	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.12	7	-6	13	16.6	15.4	1.21	16.2	14.7	1.53
Nate McMillan	48	49	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.45	-6	7	-13	15.0	16.6	-1.60	15.1	15.3	-0.24
Sam Perkins	40	43	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	9	-17	14.3	16.8	-2.50	14.6	15.7	-1.05
Eric Snow	1	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.04	-3	4	-7	1.0	15.9	-14.93	5.0	15.3	-10.30
Larry Stewart	40	41	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	16.8	15.0	1.89	14.7	15.6	-0.91
Jim McIlvaine	36	35	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.10	-1	2	-3	16.5	15.3	1.14	15.2	15.2	-0.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	85	84	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.39	6	-7	13	15.3	14.5	0.76	15.7	16.4	-0.74
Keith Askins	48	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-4	7	15.1	15.2	-0.10	15.2	16.3	-1.08
P.J. Brown	73	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.49	5	-6	11	15.1	15.5	-0.45	15.8	15.8	-0.00
John Crotty	35	33	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.26	-4	3	-7	15.0	15.3	-0.26	15.3	16.0	-0.78
Tim Hardaway	81	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-3	5	15.0	16.7	-1.79	15.5	17.2	-1.69
Ike Austin	78	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.23	-6	5	-11	15.6	13.3	2.22	16.1	14.4	1.69
Jamal Mashburn	65	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	10	-21	15.2	15.2	0.02	16.4	14.0	2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.56,0.78,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.29,0.15,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.21,0.15,0,0	90.8%
HOU 94, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	90.5%
SAC 104, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.39,0.62,0.28,0.45,0.16,0	90.3%