NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	107		Excitement	7.6 [309]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (DAL): +13.8%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.8 [414]		LVP	Mark Jackson (DEN): -15.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	16	71%	0.25	3	-0.12	6	100%	0.04
Chris Gatling	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.09	-0.01	12	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	9	65%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Oliver Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09	0.03	0.05	0.00	3	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Eric Montross	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
A.C. Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Derek Harper	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	13	38%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.01	18	63%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.08
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	8	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	29%	-0.04	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.03
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	0.00	15	47%	-0.00	4	-0.12	8	75%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	14	42%	-0.10	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.3	22.4	15.8	25.1	1.8	36.1	128.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +36.8%

DAL +24.8%

DEN -21.5%

DAL +10.1%

DEN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.1	16.0	15.6	116.3	111.8	104.4
season	15.9	15.2		99.1	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.8	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.1	12.8	14.7	18.0	15.1
DEN	16.8	19.4	14.7	13.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	37	39	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.36	6	-3	9	15.4	14.9	0.50	15.6	16.3	-0.66
Michael Finley	41	41	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.36	6	-3	9	14.8	15.3	-0.50	17.7	14.7	2.97
Derek Harper	43	45	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	15.6	14.7	0.93	16.3	15.7	0.56
Chris Gatling	54	56	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	3	-3	15.1	15.1	-0.04	15.2	17.3	-2.16
Jim Jackson	68	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	3	-3	15.8	13.0	2.80	14.6	20.1	-5.53
Jamal Mashburn	78	78	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	4	-5	14.5	18.4	-3.92	16.3	14.5	1.77
A.C. Green	49	47	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.00	3	0	3	14.7	15.5	-0.80	16.7	15.4	1.29
Eric Montross	38	39	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	4	-5	15.6	14.7	0.89	16.1	16.0	0.14
Sam Cassell	52	51	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	5	-7	14.6	15.7	-1.09	16.5	15.4	1.08

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brooks Thompson	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-3	3	18.1	15.7	2.35	10.4	15.8	-5.39
Bryant Stith	56	57	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-7	11	15.0	17.5	-2.48	15.1	15.2	-0.15
Tom Hammonds	46	46	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.17	5	-8	13	16.2	15.9	0.34	14.6	15.6	-0.96
Darvin Ham	28	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.06	-9	6	-15	19.6	14.5	5.08	12.2	16.4	-4.11
Dale Ellis	75	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.46	6	-9	15	15.1	19.8	-4.73	15.6	13.1	2.55
Ervin Johnson	58	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.19	-7	4	-11	16.3	15.5	0.81	15.5	14.5	1.05
Mark Jackson	82	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.42	-3	0	-3	15.7	18.1	-2.35	15.8	10.4	5.39
Ricky Pierce	37	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	4	-11	17.5	15.0	2.48	15.2	15.1	0.15
LaPhonso Ellis	72	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	1	-5	15.2	18.7	-3.48	15.7	13.1	2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.33,0.19,0.02,0.03,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 102, NOH 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.26,0.02,0.01,0.01,0	94.0%
ATL 85, IND 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.09,0	92.2%
NOP 113, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.46,0.34,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	92.1%