NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	7.2 [364]		MVP	David West (NOH): +27.8%
New Orleans Hornets	95		Comeback	2.4 [624]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -22.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.12	-0.02	27	53%	0.28	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.05
Nene	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.03	0.05	6	85%	0.12	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Johan Petro	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.02	0.03	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	14	58%	0.10	5	-0.11	8	87%	0.06
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	2	100%	0.04	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.09	-0.04	12	12%	-0.19	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.18	0.12	0.02	20	65%	0.28	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.00	0.02	-0.05	-0.03	18	55%	0.14	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	15	52%	0.08	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.01
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	0.05	13	48%	-0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	6	7%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.05
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	5	20%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.01	12	35%	-0.10	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.6	29.3	16.4	26.6	3.0	35.2	137.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.6%

DEN +8.2%

DEN +22.9%

NOH -10.7%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOH	NBA	DEN	NOH	NBA
this game	14.1	15.1	15.3	103.0	96.9	106.0
season	14.4	15.5		110.3	106.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	13.0	17.7	13.7	14.1
NOH	15.5	15.3	15.8	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	72	73	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.26	18	-11	29	13.9	14.9	-0.99	16.1	12.3	3.75
Carmelo Anthony	91	91	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-1	9	13.9	17.0	-3.12	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Chauncey Billups	77	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-5	17	14.7	12.2	2.51	15.5	13.8	1.74
J.R. Smith	55	52	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	6	-5	13.7	14.7	-1.03	13.5	16.9	-3.39
Chris Andersen	67	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	6	-5	14.2	14.1	0.10	13.8	17.7	-3.90
Arron Afflalo	43	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	1	5	14.7	13.7	0.92	16.8	13.7	3.08
Joey Graham	6	5	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	16.5	14.0	2.52	18.2	14.9	3.25
Johan Petro	47	47	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	8	-9	15.0	13.3	1.69	15.6	14.6	0.97
Malik Allen	12	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	11	-15	12.1	14.4	-2.33	14.4	15.2	-0.84
Anthony Carter	25	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	12	-17	12.9	14.6	-1.67	13.7	15.6	-1.93

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	24	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-5	3	13.6	15.6	-1.97	14.1	14.1	-0.01
Darius Songaila	17	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-6	5	14.2	15.3	-1.06	15.1	13.9	1.21
Emeka Okafor	61	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	16.3	13.1	3.22	14.6	13.4	1.15
Julian Wright	75	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.23	0	-7	7	15.2	14.7	0.54	13.8	15.1	-1.30
Darren Collison	90	92	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-4	1	15.3	13.2	2.03	14.2	13.6	0.60
Marcus Thornton	67	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	-4	1	13.9	17.8	-3.89	14.1	14.2	-0.15
Morris Peterson	68	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	5	-17	15.5	14.2	1.27	14.2	13.9	0.33
David West	88	88	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.30	-10	3	-13	15.2	14.3	0.90	13.8	16.9	-3.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.26,0.02,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.46,0.33,0.19,0.02,0.03,0.04,0	94.0%
MIA 105, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.2,0.04,0.03,0.09,0	93.0%
NOH 91, MEM 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.19,0.08,0,0,0	92.8%