NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	6.9 [426]		MVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): +18.2%
Phoenix Suns	110		Comeback	3.1 [489]		LVP	Tom Hammonds (DEN): -12.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.08	0.01	27	60%	0.27	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	5	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dale Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0,0	0.09	-0.05	0.05	15	69%	0.06	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.02
Elmer Bennett	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Pierce	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	10	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Mark Jackson	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	15	37%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	11	42%	-0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Tom Hammonds	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.01	12	67%	0.18	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Loren Meyer	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	16	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	16	59%	0.11	2	-0.07	7	71%	0.02
Rumeal Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayman Tisdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	8	41%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kevin Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	21	51%	0.08	2	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Ben Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Hot Rod Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	24.5	15.6	23.2	1.6	30.4	121.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +26.9%

PHX +13.7%

PHX +1.0%

PHX +2.5%

PHX +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	15.6	102.0	112.2	104.4
season	15.2	14.6		102.3	106.8
opponent	15.6	15.3		106.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	16.1	15.4	15.5	15.2
PHX	16.2	12.7	14.0	13.3	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	36	38	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-10	11	15.7	14.9	0.83	13.3	14.5	-1.14
Ricky Pierce	38	38	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-14	19	13.9	16.0	-2.06	13.9	14.1	-0.24
Elmer Bennett	16	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-8	7	12.7	15.7	-2.91	13.9	14.1	-0.21
Darvin Ham	51	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-9	9	15.4	15.0	0.37	14.5	13.5	1.06
LaPhonso Ellis	72	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-5	1	15.7	13.8	1.94	14.5	12.9	1.64
Bryant Stith	61	60	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	5	-19	16.0	13.9	2.06	14.1	13.9	0.24
Dale Ellis	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	4	-17	14.6	16.2	-1.59	13.1	15.7	-2.59
Mark Jackson	86	84	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	1	-11	15.2	15.0	0.22	14.0	14.4	-0.45
Ervin Johnson	70	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.34	-9	0	-9	15.3	15.0	0.27	14.5	12.9	1.67

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Meyer	75	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	14.4	12.8	1.64	15.7	13.5	2.29
Wesley Person	89	89	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	2	5	14.3	11.4	2.86	14.8	18.6	-3.79
Kevin Johnson	82	82	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.33	5	4	1	14.6	11.3	3.26	15.0	16.1	-1.05
Cedric Ceballos	77	79	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	3	3	14.1	14.0	0.11	14.6	17.5	-2.89
Wayman Tisdale	33	33	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	4	1	14.5	13.8	0.62	16.7	14.5	2.21
Hot Rod Williams	78	77	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.09	5	4	1	13.6	15.8	-2.21	15.1	15.5	-0.45
Rumeal Robinson	19	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	5	-1	11.2	14.7	-3.51	17.9	14.5	3.34
Steve Nash	16	19	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	3	3	11.3	14.6	-3.26	14.8	15.3	-0.50
Ben Davis	21	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	11	-13	15.0	13.8	1.28	13.8	15.6	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, PHX 103	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.93,0.99,1,1	94.0%
NYK 104, ATL 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.74,0.67,0.76,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.98,1,1,1	93.7%
MIA 84, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.91,0.97,1	93.2%