NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	6.2 [587]		MVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): +23.9%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	4.2 [427]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -19.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norris Cole	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	0.00	5	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.02	14	50%	0.09	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.07	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Rashard Lewis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	7	56%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	5	30%	-0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.2	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	16	45%	-0.04	5	-0.16	6	67%	-0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.14	0.11	0.01	15	67%	0.28	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.02	11	61%	0.19	6	-0.16	6	100%	0.04
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	10	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
George Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Orlando Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	8	77%	0.11	7	-0.21	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	33.2	16.4	26.4	2.5	36.3	141.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +50.4%

IND +3.2%

IND +19.2%

MIA -19.8%

MIA -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	16.3	15.1	91.3	98.9	105.2
season	15.6	15.8		109.7	102.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		99.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	14.5	16.7	15.1	15.1
IND	15.5	16.2	17.6	16.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	40	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-11	16	15.3	15.0	0.28	17.8	15.3	2.44
Mario Chalmers	52	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.15	2	-8	10	16.1	13.9	2.20	16.1	16.6	-0.47
Shane Battier	29	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	0	-6	15.9	14.8	1.05	15.2	16.9	-1.66
Chris Andersen	39	38	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	0	-6	15.4	15.0	0.42	16.5	16.2	0.27
Norris Cole	46	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-2	-2	14.5	15.8	-1.24	16.6	16.1	0.46
Chris Bosh	62	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-5	4	14.7	16.0	-1.22	16.2	16.6	-0.38
Ray Allen	50	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-6	6	14.4	16.0	-1.58	17.0	15.6	1.37
LeBron James	75	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-4	2	14.9	16.4	-1.49	16.3	16.5	-0.20
Dwyane Wade	67	67	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.23	-18	12	-30	15.5	14.2	1.29	15.6	18.3	-2.71

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	67	67	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.08	13	-7	20	15.2	19.5	-4.29	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Paul George	80	81	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.37	3	3	0	16.3	16.7	-0.44	14.9	17.1	-2.21
Roy Hibbert	73	74	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	1	4	15.9	18.0	-2.07	14.5	17.9	-3.48
CJ Watson	32	32	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	-1	8	16.8	16.1	0.68	16.0	14.7	1.27
David West	60	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-3	12	16.2	16.6	-0.46	15.3	14.8	0.55
Luis Scola	31	31	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.24	-3	9	-12	16.6	16.2	0.46	14.8	15.3	-0.55
George Hill	59	60	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.12	-1	7	-8	16.1	16.8	-0.68	14.7	16.0	-1.27
Orlando Johnson	35	36	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.19	-4	10	-14	18.6	14.9	3.72	15.8	14.7	1.14
Ian Mahinmi	18	18	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	5	-4	18.0	15.9	2.07	17.9	14.5	3.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.91,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 101, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.69,0.6,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.8,0.89,0.99,0.99,1	93.2%
DET 96, NJN 103	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.73,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.98,1	93.0%
MEM 87, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.55,0.71,0.82,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1	93.0%