NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	87		Excitement	6.2 [579]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +21.1%
Dallas Mavericks	97		Comeback	8.4 [334]		LVP	Erick Dampier (DAL): -14.2%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.02	-0.05	16	47%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Shane Battier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Hakim Warrick	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.02	-0.11	0.02	10	60%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	18	45%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.05	0.00	23	61%	0.23	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.21	0.04	0.04	11	96%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.07	-0.04	14	43%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	4	58%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	71%	0.08	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	5	8%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	27.4	16.6	23.8	2.5	27.6	128.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.5%

MEM -1.5%

MEM -0.7%

DAL +10.6%

DAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DAL	NBA	MEM	DAL	NBA
this game	18.1	16.4	15.6	104.8	115.5	104.4
season	17.1	16.4		103.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.9	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.4	18.1	18.9	17.1	18.1
DAL	16.7	16.3	17.1	15.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	46	45	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-16	22	17.8	18.5	-0.61	16.3	16.5	-0.20
Hakim Warrick	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-10	10	14.5	18.2	-3.71	19.7	16.3	3.41
Lorenzen Wright	24	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-5	0	19.6	17.5	2.06	17.5	15.9	1.57
Mike Miller	55	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	-5	0	17.4	19.5	-2.08	15.8	17.6	-1.84
Chucky Atkins	45	44	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-5	0	19.8	16.2	3.62	16.4	16.3	0.11
Eddie Jones	63	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	1	-12	17.1	21.2	-4.12	16.5	16.1	0.37
Bobby Jackson	54	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-5	0	18.2	17.9	0.29	15.9	17.2	-1.31
Shane Battier	62	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	18.7	16.4	2.33	16.7	15.6	1.08
Pau Gasol	64	66	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.17	-19	9	-28	17.6	19.7	-2.10	16.4	16.3	0.13

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	45	45	0.72	-0.22	0.95	-0.07	27	-17	44	16.5	16.3	0.23	19.8	16.1	3.72
Jason Terry	65	64	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.07	19	-9	28	16.4	16.2	0.29	18.7	16.0	2.75
Jerry Stackhouse	49	46	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.32	9	1	8	16.8	15.8	0.95	17.8	18.6	-0.81
DeSagana Diop	41	40	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	1	8	17.6	15.3	2.31	19.9	16.4	3.53
Dirk Nowitzki	70	66	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.21	10	0	10	17.0	13.3	3.71	18.3	17.2	1.11
Marquis Daniels	14	15	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	9	-8	12.9	17.1	-4.14	14.8	18.9	-4.05
Erick Dampier	42	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.01	-1	11	-12	15.5	17.3	-1.76	16.5	19.8	-3.28
Keith Van Horn	20	22	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	11	-12	15.1	16.8	-1.68	17.6	18.3	-0.66
Josh Howard	34	35	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	18	-26	16.2	16.5	-0.24	18.5	17.8	0.73
Devin Harris	40	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.18	-15	25	-40	16.3	16.5	-0.20	16.2	19.9	-3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.55,0.71,0.82,0.93,0.93,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 84, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.91,0.97,1	93.0%
DAL 108, SAS 115	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.92,0.99,1,1	91.5%
NYK 88, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.69,0.8,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,1,1	91.5%