NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Excitement	10.8 [40]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +13.6%
Atlanta Hawks	95		Comeback	3.8 [339]		LVP	Stephon Marbury (MIN): -42.8%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.14	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14	0.04	0.10	-0.00	15	65%	0.21	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.09
James Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	3	83%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	8	72%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shane Heal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08	-0.12	0.03	-0.01	8	69%	0.13	8	-0.21	16	75%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.31	-0.08	-0.23	-0.00	4	25%	-0.29	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.12
Stephon Marbury	-0.43	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.43	-0.12	-0.32	-0.02	9	33%	-0.31	2	-0.12	6	50%	-0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	15	59%	0.15	1	-0.08	7	71%	0.02
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Ivano Newbill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.11	0.01	19	58%	0.02	1	-0.09	7	86%	0.09
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.07	0.07	18	40%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	9	46%	-0.05	2	-0.08	6	83%	0.06
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	7	33%	-0.06	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.6	27.5	16.4	27.8	1.7	41.2	140.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -39.9%

ATL +52.9%

ATL +27.8%

ATL +8.1%

ATL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ATL	NBA	MIN	ATL	NBA
this game	14.2	18.0	15.6	104.5	105.6	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		103.3	105.3
opponent	16.0	15.5		100.3	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.8	13.5	13.5	16.0	14.2
ATL	17.5	17.1	18.4	19.1	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	48	51	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.14	6	-8	14	14.6	13.7	0.97	18.1	17.8	0.32
Cherokee Parks	16	17	0.04	-0.55	0.59	-0.05	3	-5	8	15.2	14.0	1.23	17.1	18.2	-1.06
Terry Porter	28	29	0.03	-0.54	0.57	-0.12	5	-7	12	17.3	12.7	4.58	17.8	18.1	-0.27
Doug West	41	42	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-2	2	12.5	15.6	-3.05	18.4	17.6	0.85
Dean Garrett	1	2	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-1	0	16.0	14.2	1.84	20.5	17.9	2.58
Chris Carr	24	23	-0.15	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	4	-10	17.3	13.0	4.26	17.3	18.2	-0.90
James Robinson	24	25	-0.30	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-6	10	13.9	14.3	-0.42	17.8	18.0	-0.19
Tom Gugliotta	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	13.6	19.7	-6.10	18.0	18.0	-0.02
Stephon Marbury	61	61	-0.54	0.03	-0.57	-0.33	-7	5	-12	12.7	17.3	-4.58	18.1	17.8	0.27
Kevin Garnett	82	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.37	-7	5	-12	14.5	10.6	3.92	17.9	19.0	-1.12
Stojko Vrankovic	40	38	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.58	-8	6	-14	13.8	14.5	-0.69	18.3	17.8	0.49

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	81	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.36	7	-5	12	18.0	17.4	0.59	14.6	10.2	4.32
Tyrone Corbin	79	77	0.48	0.03	0.45	0.48	0	2	-2	18.4	15.1	3.29	13.5	18.7	-5.28
Mookie Blaylock	76	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.50	-1	3	-4	17.8	18.8	-0.96	13.6	17.5	-3.94
Dikembe Mutombo	68	67	0.37	0.14	0.23	0.43	-2	4	-6	18.6	16.0	2.62	14.3	13.8	0.54
Christian Laettner	70	70	0.32	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	-4	10	18.1	17.6	0.42	14.0	14.9	-0.91
Henry James	24	25	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	2	-2	16.9	18.4	-1.50	18.4	12.5	5.87
Ivano Newbill	28	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	-1	4	16.4	18.7	-2.25	13.0	14.7	-1.69
Eldridge Recasner	24	23	-0.02	0.53	-0.55	0.07	-3	5	-8	17.7	18.1	-0.31	14.2	14.2	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.62,0.46,0.32,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, GSW 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.35,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.55,0.72,1	91.0%
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	91.0%
DET 86, CHH 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.62,0.77,0.63,0.49,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.16,0.58,1	90.6%