NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	9.2 [90]		MVP	B.J. Armstrong (CHH): +37.5%
Charlotte Hornets	88		Comeback	6.1 [180]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -49.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.24,0.18,0.05	0.08	-0.03	-0.01	17	59%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rick Mahorn	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	57%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Don Reid	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.11	0.07	-0.16	0.02	7	73%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09,-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	19	40%	-0.04	1	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.50	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.5	-0.21	-0.28	0.00	14	32%	-0.34	4	-0.15	9	44%	-0.10

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.06,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.07	0.31	0.00	6	75%	0.37	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.22,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	17	69%	0.21	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.03
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	46%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Donald Royal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	9	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
David Wesley	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.18	-0.00	15	44%	-0.17	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	24.1	15.8	27.0	1.6	36.7	130.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +36.8%

CHH +20.5%

DET -17.9%

CHH +4.6%

CHH +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHH	NBA	DET	CHH	NBA
this game	16.9	18.0	15.6	102.4	108.6	102.5
season	15.9	15.7		102.8	104.0
opponent	15.9	15.9		102.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.1	18.1	14.9	18.8	16.9
CHH	19.1	17.0	17.9	18.1	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	57	56	0.25	-0.75	1.00	0.01	8	-10	18	15.8	19.3	-3.54	18.6	16.8	1.79
Jerome Williams	20	19	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.00	6	-8	14	16.6	17.0	-0.43	16.9	18.3	-1.38
Scot Pollard	18	17	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-5	8	16.4	17.1	-0.62	16.6	18.4	-1.79
Rick Mahorn	31	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-2	2	16.9	17.0	-0.09	18.6	17.7	0.86
Bison Dele	35	35	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.29	-5	3	-8	17.2	16.7	0.51	18.2	17.8	0.40
Jerry Stackhouse	57	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.52	2	-4	6	17.7	15.3	2.35	17.4	19.2	-1.78
Grant Hill	74	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.41	-4	2	-6	16.9	17.1	-0.19	18.2	16.6	1.60
Don Reid	64	62	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.44	-8	6	-14	17.0	16.6	0.43	18.3	16.9	1.38
Joe Dumars	64	62	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.41	-12	10	-22	17.3	15.7	1.55	17.8	18.7	-0.89

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	69	72	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.43	8	-6	14	18.1	17.4	0.68	17.1	15.8	1.28
Bobby Phills	72	74	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-4	10	18.1	17.4	0.63	16.9	17.3	-0.42
Vlade Divac	52	54	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.51	1	1	0	17.7	18.6	-0.91	17.8	15.4	2.38
Glen Rice	71	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	0	2	18.1	17.1	1.03	16.6	19.7	-3.15
Donald Royal	2	2	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	1	0	2.0	18.4	-16.41	2.5	17.3	-14.78
B.J. Armstrong	25	26	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	-5	12	19.8	17.2	2.55	19.8	15.6	4.17
J.R. Reid	5	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.03	-2	4	-6	17.4	18.0	-0.64	14.0	17.1	-3.11
Matt Geiger	36	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	5	-8	18.4	17.7	0.65	15.7	17.9	-2.14
David Wesley	50	52	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.10	-1	3	-4	17.8	18.3	-0.52	16.7	17.3	-0.62
Dell Curry	23	24	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.01	-9	11	-20	17.3	18.3	-0.97	16.8	17.0	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.47,0.59,0.62,0.77,0.63,0.49,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.58,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.37,0.16,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 93, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.21,0.17,0.58,1	91.2%
DAL 105, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.32,0.23,0.45,0.42,1	90.7%
MIN 93, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.62,0.46,0.32,0.73,1	90.6%