NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	10.3 [46]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (GSW): +72.0%
Golden State Warriors	91		Comeback	3.4 [515]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -37.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jason Hart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	17	51%	0.06	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Ron Mercer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	3	12%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	7	50%	-0.09	2	-0.04	8	87%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.38	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.17,-0.21,-0.33,-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.00	20	51%	-0.21	5	-0.16	13	54%	-0.24

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.09,0.03,0.32,0.32,0.72	0.72	0.16	0.56	-0.00	19	67%	0.72	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.09	-0.00	9	43%	0.10	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.02
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	61%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Speedy Claxton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	11	46%	0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	7	50%	-0.03	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	12	33%	-0.10	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31	-0.31	-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	11	33%	-0.22	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	29.0	15.0	30.2	2.6	36.1	138.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +67.1%

GSW +2.4%

SAS -12.7%

SAS -2.9%

SAS -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.1	15.5	15.7	94.7	96.8	100.5
season	15.9	16.1		100.1	100.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		101.6	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	16.3	14.7	16.0	15.1
GSW	16.1	16.5	13.5	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Hart	18	16	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.11	2	-4	6	16.4	14.8	1.60	16.3	15.3	0.99
Devin Brown	9	9	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-3	4	17.3	14.9	2.42	16.9	15.3	1.55
Ron Mercer	13	11	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	17.8	14.7	3.13	13.8	15.7	-1.89
Malik Rose	28	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	4	-10	17.0	14.3	2.69	15.4	15.5	-0.18
Robert Horry	25	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	2	-6	16.8	14.5	2.30	14.3	15.9	-1.55
Hedo Turkoglu	40	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.17	-1	-1	0	16.8	13.9	2.96	15.5	15.5	0.08
Bruce Bowen	62	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.25	-2	0	-2	14.0	17.3	-3.28	15.3	15.8	-0.49
Tim Duncan	77	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.48	5	-7	12	14.7	17.1	-2.40	15.9	13.5	2.39
Rasho Nesterovic	58	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.44	1	-3	4	14.1	16.9	-2.77	15.5	15.6	-0.11
Manu Ginobili	64	67	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.49	2	-4	6	14.3	16.9	-2.62	15.7	15.0	0.74
Tony Parker	76	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.55	-4	2	-6	14.8	16.4	-1.60	15.3	16.3	-0.99

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	59	60	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.44	9	-7	16	15.4	15.6	-0.18	16.2	13.2	3.00
Erick Dampier	65	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.53	-2	4	-6	16.3	13.6	2.75	14.5	16.5	-2.03
Clifford Robinson	67	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.51	-2	4	-6	15.0	16.7	-1.76	14.4	16.9	-2.48
Jason Richardson	77	78	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.49	-2	4	-6	15.7	14.7	0.96	14.8	17.0	-2.23
Mike Dunleavy	62	61	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.38	0	2	-2	16.2	14.1	2.12	14.6	16.2	-1.64
Calbert Cheaney	48	48	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	-1	4	14.3	16.8	-2.49	16.4	13.8	2.59
Brian Cardinal	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.17	10	-8	18	15.4	15.5	-0.11	16.5	13.9	2.66
Cherokee Parks	13	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	2	-2	14.1	15.7	-1.64	17.4	14.7	2.68
Speedy Claxton	35	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.04	-6	8	-14	15.6	15.4	0.18	13.2	16.2	-3.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.35,0.45,0.35,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.55,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	91.9%
SEA 100, LAL 103	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.53,0.26,0.28,0.43,0.73,1	91.8%
IND 87, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.72,1	91.6%