NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	8.0 [236]		MVP	Popeye Jones (TOR): +13.6%
Toronto Raptors	85		Comeback	11.0 [56]		LVP	Gerald Wilkins (ORL): -27.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09	-0.06	0.14	-0.01	14	44%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.08
Darrell Armstrong	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	5	45%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.04	0.01	14	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rony Seikaly	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.02,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	19	48%	0.09	2	-0.13	6	50%	-0.07
Nick Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	8	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Dennis Scott	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	9	22%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.27,-0.27	-0.06	-0.21	0.00	5	20%	-0.12	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Popeye Jones	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.01	8	76%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	4	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Sharone Wright	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Acie Earl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	9	32%	-0.16	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.06
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.18	0.00	16	47%	-0.17	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.05
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25	-0.25	-0.05	-0.19	0.01	19	51%	-0.10	4	-0.15	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.5	24.2	16.8	29.6	2.7	42.5	145.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +15.3%

ORL +7.0%

ORL +21.6%

TOR -1.4%

ORL +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.7	17.0	15.6	102.3	100.0	104.4
season	16.4	16.1		102.9	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.5		105.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.0	16.9	16.8	18.0	16.7
TOR	17.8	19.1	13.7	18.0	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	23	22	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.49	10	-7	17	17.0	16.5	0.48	16.8	17.1	-0.29
Rony Seikaly	71	69	0.69	-0.20	0.89	0.28	14	-11	25	16.1	19.1	-2.93	18.7	10.1	8.59
Anfernee Hardaway	68	69	0.61	-0.12	0.72	0.37	8	-5	13	17.0	15.3	1.74	17.4	15.2	2.20
Horace Grant	57	59	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.33	3	0	3	17.0	15.9	1.14	17.2	16.6	0.60
Nick Anderson	55	54	0.33	0.16	0.17	0.33	0	3	-3	15.3	19.1	-3.82	17.4	16.4	1.02
Dennis Scott	54	52	-0.01	0.50	-0.51	-0.09	3	0	3	16.2	17.4	-1.15	16.1	18.5	-2.32
Derek Strong	36	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.13	-6	9	-15	16.5	16.8	-0.31	14.8	18.5	-3.72
Gerald Wilkins	43	44	-0.12	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	10	-17	18.3	15.0	3.35	17.2	16.9	0.35
Brian Shaw	23	23	-0.21	0.70	-0.91	0.09	-10	13	-23	17.3	16.4	0.89	14.8	17.9	-3.09

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Acie Earl	14	17	-0.06	-0.43	0.37	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	13.3	17.8	-4.49	16.9	16.6	0.36
Popeye Jones	64	62	-0.08	-0.41	0.33	-0.43	12	-15	27	17.1	16.9	0.17	17.1	15.6	1.48
Marcus Camby	48	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-1	-1	16.3	18.0	-1.76	16.4	16.9	-0.47
Sharone Wright	33	33	-0.19	-0.30	0.10	0.07	-9	6	-15	18.1	16.3	1.78	16.0	17.1	-1.11
Walt Williams	77	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-5	7	17.1	16.9	0.18	16.6	17.4	-0.89
Doug Christie	65	67	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.24	-8	5	-13	16.5	18.9	-2.44	16.9	15.8	1.04
Damon Stoudamire	72	72	-0.53	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	18.5	8.8	9.67	16.5	17.4	-0.84
Carlos Rogers	52	53	-0.68	0.19	-0.87	-0.60	-3	0	-3	16.7	17.6	-0.98	16.7	16.5	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.59,0.53,0.38,0.46,0.43,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, VAN 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.83,0.89,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.54,0.37,0.31,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.28,0.32,0.08,0	91.2%
SEA 105, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.46,0.57,0.17,0	90.4%
POR 88, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.74,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.42,0	89.8%