NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	109		Excitement	8.2 [202]		MVP	Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf (SAC): +23.6%
Vancouver Grizzlies	101		Comeback	2.8 [255]		LVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): -26.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.12	0.02	14	82%	0.33	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.1,-0.05,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.04	-0.01	17	76%	0.25	5	-0.19	8	87%	0.04
Olden Polynice	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	15	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05
Kevin Gamble	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	3	33%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.03	12	50%	-0.05	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.06
Tyus Edney	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	8	50%	-0.05	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	0.07	-0.03	10	43%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pete Chilcutt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	31%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.07	-0.14	0.02	24	63%	0.07	3	-0.16	11	82%	0.05
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	14	43%	-0.02	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.02	-0.24	0.00	25	55%	-0.00	4	-0.27	5	40%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	26.7	15.8	26.5	0.3	38.2	134.3
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +57.8%

VAN -12.3%

SAC +0.9%

VAN -4.4%

SAC +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	VAN	NBA	SAC	VAN	NBA
this game	14.9	15.6	15.6	114.7	107.4	104.4
season	15.4	16.3		102.4	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.6	15.0	15.3	12.8	14.9
VAN	13.4	16.3	16.0	16.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	58	58	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.18	15	-7	22	13.6	16.9	-3.32	16.2	14.6	1.53
Michael Smith	86	83	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.29	10	-2	12	14.6	17.6	-2.94	15.1	19.0	-3.87
Olden Polynice	84	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	0	8	14.8	15.4	-0.53	15.5	16.2	-0.67
Mitch Richmond	83	84	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	-1	10	14.9	14.8	0.07	15.4	17.1	-1.70
Corliss Williamson	81	78	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.34	-4	12	-16	14.4	17.6	-3.22	15.4	16.2	-0.80
Kevin Gamble	26	26	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	1	6	17.0	14.1	2.85	16.5	15.2	1.26
Duane Causwell	20	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	6	-4	15.5	14.7	0.83	17.6	14.9	2.68
Tyus Edney	37	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.09	-7	15	-22	16.9	13.6	3.32	14.6	16.2	-1.53

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lee Mayberry	44	46	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.11	9	-17	26	14.3	16.7	-2.42	15.4	14.4	0.92
Roy Rogers	31	30	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.09	1	-9	10	16.5	15.1	1.34	16.7	14.0	2.69
Pete Chilcutt	13	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-9	10	16.7	15.4	1.28	15.2	14.8	0.36
George Lynch	56	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	1	-10	15.4	15.8	-0.43	14.7	15.2	-0.44
Blue Edwards	45	46	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	2	-12	16.2	15.0	1.18	15.1	14.7	0.46
Anthony Peeler	63	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.36	-1	-7	6	14.9	17.1	-2.21	14.6	15.4	-0.82
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	84	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	15.5	16.1	-0.58	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Bryant Reeves	84	84	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.38	-8	0	-8	15.5	16.5	-1.02	14.4	18.6	-4.23
Greg Anthony	50	49	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.15	-17	9	-26	16.7	14.3	2.42	14.4	15.4	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.56,0.73,0.59,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.08,0	92.2%
TOR 95, POR 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.27,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.03,0	91.8%
ATL 111, CLE 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.67,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	91.6%