NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	6.8 [440]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +12.8%
Utah Jazz	83		Comeback	1.5 [805]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -35.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.01	-0.01	13	69%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0	-0.01	0.04	0.03	13	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.08
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	6	59%	0.04	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04
Keith Askins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.26,-0.26	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	15	45%	0.02	5	-0.28	3	100%	0.07
Tim Hardaway	-0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.35	-0.16	-0.22	-0.03	18	36%	-0.17	3	-0.18	6	83%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.00	9	59%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.09
Chris Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	73%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	79%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.03
Greg Ostertag	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamie Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	35%	-0.04	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	2	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28	-0.28	-0.17	-0.13	-0.01	22	48%	-0.16	6	-0.12	14	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	28.2	14.6	35.2	2.5	31.6	139.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -7.0%

UTA +18.1%

MIA -9.3%

UTA +42.3%

UTA +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	16.8	15.2	15.6	89.9	91.2	104.4
season	15.8	15.6		103.1	110.8
opponent	16.0	16.3		102.2	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	18.5	15.6	16.6	16.8
UTA	15.5	12.8	15.7	16.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	29	28	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-8	13	14.0	18.2	-4.22	14.2	15.7	-1.44
Sasha Danilovic	57	61	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-5	7	18.0	14.7	3.21	15.2	15.2	-0.04
Ike Austin	41	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-9	15	16.1	17.4	-1.27	15.0	15.4	-0.31
Voshon Lenard	62	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.36	6	-9	15	15.6	19.6	-3.94	15.1	15.4	-0.34
P.J. Brown	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.23	-2	-1	-1	18.5	15.0	3.52	16.3	14.0	2.29
Tim Hardaway	78	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.45	-1	-2	1	16.6	18.4	-1.77	14.8	17.6	-2.79
Keith Askins	43	43	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.22	-14	11	-25	16.9	16.8	0.10	14.8	15.6	-0.84
Alonzo Mourning	66	68	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.28	-18	15	-33	17.8	14.1	3.67	15.7	13.7	2.02

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	77	77	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	-5	13	14.7	17.9	-3.13	17.4	12.7	4.69
Jeff Hornacek	58	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	2	-1	15.9	14.1	1.80	16.1	18.1	-1.96
Greg Ostertag	36	36	0.35	0.15	0.21	-0.03	13	-10	23	14.5	15.7	-1.13	18.9	15.4	3.59
Bryon Russell	56	54	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	3	-3	15.9	14.1	1.73	16.4	17.4	-0.97
John Stockton	69	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	4	-5	15.9	13.0	2.85	17.6	14.5	3.07
Antoine Carr	35	31	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.35	-6	9	-15	16.3	14.5	1.75	14.2	18.2	-4.01
Howard Eisley	22	22	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	-1	5	13.0	15.9	-2.85	14.5	17.6	-3.07
Chris Morris	35	35	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.06	3	0	3	14.1	15.9	-1.73	17.4	16.4	0.97
Jamie Watson	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	5	-7	13.3	16.4	-3.17	17.2	16.6	0.60
Greg Foster	29	27	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	6	-9	17.3	14.2	3.08	16.1	17.1	-1.05
Adam Keefe	3	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	5	-7	13.0	15.3	-2.28	17.5	16.8	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.72,0.85,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.89,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.69,0.85,0.68,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 115, TOR 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.98,1	93.2%
CHA 82, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.83,0.64,0.89,0.9,0.99,1	93.1%
DAL 93, MIN 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.91,0.98,1	92.9%