NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	90		Excitement	7.9 [247]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +15.8%
Sacramento Kings	83		Comeback	5.0 [168]		LVP	Bobby Hurley (SAC): -23.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.23,-0.02,0.16,0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.00	13	38%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.02	9	77%	0.11	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Kobe Bryant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.07	0.02	0.00	18	42%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Byron Scott	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	5	25%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.17	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.12	-0.02	25	43%	-0.12	1	-0.05	8	37%	-0.10

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.01	12	73%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	30	48%	0.20	4	-0.24	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	61%	-0.01	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.03
Michael Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	18	36%	-0.14	2	-0.05	6	17%	-0.10
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	6	7%	-0.13	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.6	29.2	16.4	24.2	2.5	35.6	132.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +4.5%

LAL +3.7%

LAL +1.6%

LAL +38.0%

LAL +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAC	NBA	LAL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.6	100.0	93.3	104.4
season	15.3	15.4		105.8	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.7		106.0	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.0	16.1	19.8	16.1	16.7
SAC	16.3	16.7	14.5	14.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	76	76	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.39	10	-3	13	16.5	17.7	-1.21	16.0	12.6	3.36
Nick Van Exel	63	64	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.48	4	3	1	16.8	16.5	0.30	15.3	16.0	-0.66
Corie Blount	51	48	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.54	1	6	-5	17.0	16.3	0.76	15.6	15.3	0.35
Elden Campbell	79	81	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	0	7	16.7	16.3	0.47	15.4	16.4	-0.98
Eddie Jones	71	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	7	-7	16.8	16.3	0.54	14.9	17.8	-2.82
Kobe Bryant	20	19	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.00	6	1	5	15.1	17.1	-1.98	17.2	15.0	2.13
Sean Rooks	5	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	8	-9	17.6	16.6	0.96	15.7	15.5	0.28
Derek Fisher	27	25	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.18	3	4	-1	16.5	16.8	-0.30	16.0	15.3	0.66
Byron Scott	38	39	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.31	7	0	7	16.8	16.6	0.27	15.5	15.5	-0.04
Travis Knight	20	17	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	-0.08	-2	9	-11	16.9	16.6	0.34	13.6	15.9	-2.27

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	33	36	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.17	-4	-3	-1	15.1	15.7	-0.67	16.6	16.8	-0.18
Duane Causwell	27	31	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.12	-4	-3	-1	16.0	15.3	0.74	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Mitch Richmond	82	82	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-6	5	15.0	21.4	-6.45	16.8	15.1	1.72
Kevin Gamble	23	26	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	0	-7	16.7	15.0	1.69	14.5	17.6	-3.02
Billy Owens	81	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	15.0	20.1	-5.10	16.9	14.7	2.13
Michael Smith	58	56	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.45	-1	-6	5	15.7	15.0	0.69	17.2	15.8	1.44
Bobby Hurley	47	45	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.09	-16	9	-25	16.2	14.7	1.50	16.2	17.2	-1.02
Olden Polynice	73	71	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.38	-10	3	-13	15.8	14.0	1.81	16.6	16.9	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.74,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 96, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.26,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.66,0.73,0.61,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	92.6%
CHI 106, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.75,0.37,0.23,0.03,0	92.0%
NYK 97, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.67,0.55,0.29,0.32,0.09,0	91.5%