NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	90		Excitement	8.7 [151]		MVP	Charles Barkley (HOU): +17.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	85		Comeback	10.6 [73]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (LAL): -42.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Barkley	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,0.18	0.02	0.16	-0.00	10	70%	0.28	3	-0.10	13	54%	-0.12
Matt Bullard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	3	100%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	62%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Othella Harrington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emanual Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clyde Drexler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.03	-0.01	12	52%	0.08	5	-0.15	9	89%	0.03
Sam Mack	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	16	49%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Matt Maloney	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	18	58%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Travis Knight	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	4	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Rumeal Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	57%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	5	50%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	14	44%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.23	-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	9	22%	-0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17,-0.43	-0.43	-0.09	-0.34	0.00	16	53%	-0.34	4	-0.09	11	27%	-0.45

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.7	2.4	26.5	15.8	32.2	2.7	36.2	149.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +55.2%

HOU +25.1%

LAL -15.5%

LAL -14.0%

LAL -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	LAL	NBA	HOU	LAL	NBA
this game	17.2	16.3	15.6	104.7	98.8	104.4
season	15.5	15.3		107.2	105.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.3	17.4	18.5	16.9	17.2
LAL	15.0	16.1	17.5	16.6	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bullard	29	26	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.47	10	-5	15	15.3	18.2	-2.88	16.6	16.1	0.44
Kevin Willis	57	58	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.44	7	-2	9	17.2	17.3	-0.13	15.8	17.2	-1.35
Mario Elie	80	81	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-4	13	16.9	22.0	-5.14	16.2	16.6	-0.35
Clyde Drexler	77	77	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	0	5	17.5	15.0	2.48	16.0	18.6	-2.56
Charles Barkley	78	79	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	0	5	17.5	14.4	3.14	16.3	15.7	0.60
Charles Jones	10	10	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.06	7	-2	9	19.3	16.9	2.35	19.2	15.9	3.32
Emanual Davis	7	5	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	4	-3	14.1	17.5	-3.35	17.6	16.2	1.41
Sam Mack	15	14	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	9	-13	17.8	17.1	0.70	17.9	16.0	1.90
Othella Harrington	14	15	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.03	-8	13	-21	18.0	17.1	0.93	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Matt Maloney	63	65	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.08	-7	12	-19	17.6	16.1	1.49	16.0	17.2	-1.22

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	19	20	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.14	8	-13	21	16.3	16.3	0.06	16.5	17.4	-0.94
Corie Blount	53	51	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.06	7	-12	19	17.0	15.2	1.81	17.1	17.4	-0.30
Travis Knight	2	2	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.02	0	-5	5	14.5	16.3	-1.81	11.0	17.4	-6.37
Rumeal Robinson	9	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-3	1	18.6	16.0	2.56	15.6	17.4	-1.83
Byron Scott	27	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.09	-6	1	-7	14.9	16.9	-2.01	17.8	16.9	0.87
Jerome Kersey	58	57	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.48	6	-11	17	16.8	15.2	1.56	16.8	18.1	-1.38
Eddie Jones	86	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	16.3	0.0	16.27	17.2	0.0	17.22
Elden Campbell	44	45	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.37	-10	5	-15	15.3	17.3	-1.99	17.5	17.0	0.52
Shaquille O'Neal	65	66	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.41	-10	5	-15	16.2	16.4	-0.21	17.7	15.5	2.24
Nick Van Exel	67	66	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.50	-13	8	-21	16.3	16.3	-0.06	17.4	16.5	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.91,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 91, MIL 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.88,0.89,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.73,0	91.3%
MEM 93, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.92,0	91.2%
WAS 91, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.88,0.79,0.91,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.96,0	90.8%