NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	91		Excitement	7.5 [323]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +29.3%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	37.0 [45]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -22.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,0.29	-0.01	0.32	0.02	8	56%	0.40	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.22	0.07	0.14	-0.01	17	60%	0.27	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.04
Nene	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.00	8	75%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	43%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.13
Kevin Seraphin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	56%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	12	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.19	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	10	40%	-0.07	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	5	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.00	5	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	11	65%	0.10	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	15	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	9	22%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	15	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.22	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	0.01	16	50%	-0.10	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	1.8	26.0	15.8	21.9	2.4	31.7	120.7
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +57.6%

ORL -3.4%

WAS +0.6%

ORL -5.0%

WAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	17.1	15.1	103.4	102.3	104.2
season	15.1	14.9		102.9	100.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.9	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.9	19.1	17.7	13.4	15.9
ORL	16.8	16.9	16.6	17.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	51	52	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.48	8	-6	14	15.5	16.4	-0.91	17.3	16.7	0.59
Bradley Beal	61	61	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.51	5	-3	8	15.7	16.3	-0.59	17.3	16.5	0.76
Rasual Butler	52	49	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.55	0	2	-2	15.3	16.6	-1.24	16.6	17.7	-1.14
John Wall	64	64	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.48	2	0	2	15.6	16.6	-1.01	16.9	17.6	-0.73
Andre Miller	24	24	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	0	2	16.6	15.6	1.01	16.9	17.1	-0.27
Kris Humphries	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	0	2	15.7	16.0	-0.25	17.1	17.0	0.12
Nene	37	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.14	2	0	2	16.1	15.7	0.44	17.7	16.6	1.06
Kevin Seraphin	22	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.09	0	2	-2	17.0	15.5	1.53	17.6	16.9	0.70
Otto Porter	27	26	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.07	-3	5	-8	16.3	15.7	0.59	16.5	17.3	-0.76
Marcin Gortat	50	49	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.06	-8	10	-18	16.2	15.4	0.76	16.9	17.3	-0.34

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle O'Quinn	53	53	0.49	-0.99	1.48	0.20	10	-12	22	17.0	17.1	-0.13	17.0	14.1	2.98
Ben Gordon	33	34	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.10	2	-4	6	16.9	17.2	-0.31	16.4	15.5	0.91
Evan Fournier	37	36	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.10	2	-4	6	17.5	16.8	0.73	17.3	14.9	2.41
Andrew Nicholson	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	0	-2	17.6	17.0	0.56	7.6	16.3	-8.75
Channing Frye	60	62	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-3	4	17.3	16.6	0.74	16.4	14.7	1.70
Dewayne Dedmon	36	37	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.40	-5	3	-8	16.9	17.2	-0.35	15.1	16.4	-1.28
Elfrid Payton	54	54	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	2	-6	17.0	17.2	-0.13	14.8	17.5	-2.73
Tobias Harris	64	64	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.53	-3	1	-4	17.2	16.8	0.33	15.9	15.6	0.31
Willie Green	42	43	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.53	-5	3	-8	16.5	17.6	-1.15	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Victor Oladipo	51	52	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.60	-6	4	-10	17.2	16.9	0.31	15.6	16.2	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.88,0.79,0.91,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.96,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.87,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.85,0	91.8%
HOU 90, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.91,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.72,0	90.8%
MEM 93, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.92,0	90.8%