NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	99		Excitement	8.8 [142]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +87.3%
Memphis Grizzlies	98		Comeback	14.9 [95]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -20.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.87	0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.87	0.21	0.68	0.01	19	78%	0.93	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Derek Fisher	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	5	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.07
Shannon Brown	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
DJ Mbenga	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	68%	0.08	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	6	42%	-0.00	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19	-0.06	-0.12	0.01	18	49%	-0.05	4	-0.13	9	67%	-0.06
Metta World Peace	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.06	-0.00	9	15%	-0.14	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.17	-0.01	17	45%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	71%	0.20	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.02
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	10	38%	0.01	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	39%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.21	-0.21	0.07	-0.27	0.00	15	69%	-0.08	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	29.5	16.6	27.0	2.7	39.2	144.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +62.1%

LAL +2.8%

MEM -18.0%

MEM -5.6%

LAL +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MEM	NBA	LAL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.7	14.8	15.3	102.1	100.0	106.0
season	15.7	15.4		107.9	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.1		108.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.2	15.6	14.5	14.7	14.7
MEM	15.1	14.4	12.7	17.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	62	58	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.49	7	-6	13	14.8	14.6	0.18	15.1	14.3	0.80
Kobe Bryant	82	82	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.49	3	-2	5	14.3	17.2	-2.91	14.9	14.1	0.80
Derek Fisher	63	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	1	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.39	14.4	15.7	-1.31
Pau Gasol	83	87	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.51	-2	3	-5	14.7	14.9	-0.13	14.4	17.6	-3.20
Metta World Peace	84	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.49	-3	4	-7	14.9	13.6	1.30	14.5	17.0	-2.48
Shannon Brown	29	28	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	-3	7	15.0	14.6	0.42	14.9	14.8	0.09
Jordan Farmar	34	33	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	0	1	15.6	14.3	1.39	15.7	14.4	1.31
DJ Mbenga	1	0	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	3	-5	21.0	14.7	6.32	0.0	14.8	-14.80
Andrew Bynum	47	50	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	4	-7	14.9	14.6	0.21	15.3	14.3	0.99

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hamed Haddadi	24	22	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-4	7	16.2	14.3	1.93	15.6	14.5	1.10
Darrell Arthur	18	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-2	3	13.2	15.1	-1.93	16.3	14.4	1.89
Marcus Williams	29	28	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	0	-1	15.0	14.7	0.34	15.6	14.4	1.17
Sam Young	31	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	3	-7	15.1	14.6	0.49	15.6	14.4	1.19
Mike Conley	68	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-3	5	14.9	14.6	0.23	14.6	15.1	-0.47
O.J. Mayo	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-2	3	14.9	14.3	0.66	14.6	15.4	-0.78
Zach Randolph	80	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.42	-2	1	-3	15.1	13.2	1.93	14.4	16.3	-1.89
Rudy Gay	87	87	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.49	-1	0	-1	14.4	17.7	-3.30	14.4	17.4	-2.96
Marc Gasol	74	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.48	-4	3	-7	14.3	16.2	-1.93	14.5	15.6	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.87,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 91, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.88,0.79,0.91,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.96,0	91.8%
CHI 105, NYK 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.61,0.55,0.79,0.84,0.63,0	89.8%
MIL 93, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.79,0.88,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.77,0.59,0	89.3%