NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	8.5 [190]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +56.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	14.8 [114]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MIL): -28.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.56	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.56	0.04	0.54	0.02	8	63%	0.60	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.05
Joakim Noah	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	15	66%	0.21	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.00	16	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
D.J. Augustin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	-0.01	12	54%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18	-0.03	-0.14	0.02	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.20	8	87%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.21	0.01	9	56%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	67%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
John Henson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	9	68%	0.12	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	71%	0.21	4	-0.19	6	83%	0.00
Miroslav Raduljica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	9	48%	0.06	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.06
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.07	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	7	19%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Wolters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.29	-0.29	0.03	-0.31	0.01	13	54%	-0.26	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	31.2	15.6	27.2	1.8	37.4	137.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +33.7%

MIL -3.3%

CHI +21.5%

MIL -0.0%

MIL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.1	103.4	105.9	105.2
season	16.3	15.7		101.1	101.4
opponent	15.1	15.3		109.7	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.6	15.6	17.9	15.8	16.5
MIL	16.9	17.1	16.4	17.0	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	69	66	1.04	-0.54	1.58	0.57	16	-15	31	16.4	16.8	-0.41	16.7	17.2	-0.48
Kirk Hinrich	67	65	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.50	13	-12	25	16.5	16.2	0.30	16.8	17.0	-0.28
Jimmy Butler	69	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-8	17	16.6	16.2	0.39	16.3	18.5	-2.18
Mike Dunleavy	69	67	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.48	2	-1	3	16.7	15.8	0.86	16.9	16.7	0.14
Joakim Noah	65	62	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	-1	3	17.2	14.4	2.75	16.3	18.4	-2.13
Nazr Mohammed	7	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	9	-17	16.9	16.4	0.43	21.0	16.4	4.60
Tony Snell	38	37	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.04	-9	10	-19	16.0	16.8	-0.87	17.6	16.2	1.44
D.J. Augustin	21	20	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.03	-12	13	-25	16.2	16.5	-0.30	17.0	16.8	0.28
Taj Gibson	35	34	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.17	-8	9	-17	15.2	17.3	-2.05	17.1	16.6	0.47

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nate Wolters	34	33	0.38	-0.88	1.27	0.09	10	-11	21	17.6	16.3	1.30	16.2	16.6	-0.41
Ersan Ilyasova	44	44	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-6	11	17.3	16.3	0.95	15.5	17.5	-1.98
Giannis Antetokounmpo	41	42	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.12	1	-2	3	18.0	15.7	2.34	15.9	17.0	-1.16
Khris Middleton	42	43	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.11	1	-2	3	16.3	17.4	-1.13	18.0	15.0	2.91
Miroslav Raduljica	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	0	-1	25.7	16.4	9.35	18.0	16.4	1.61
Ekpe Udoh	59	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.52	0	-1	1	15.9	18.9	-3.01	17.2	14.9	2.33
John Henson	62	66	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.46	-6	5	-11	17.1	16.2	0.85	16.6	16.0	0.62
Gary Neal	36	38	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.84	5	-6	11	16.3	17.2	-0.92	14.9	17.7	-2.77
O.J. Mayo	51	54	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.48	-9	8	-17	16.7	17.1	-0.42	16.6	16.3	0.23
Brandon Knight	52	55	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.43	-11	10	-21	16.1	18.1	-2.00	16.6	16.2	0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.71,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.88,0.89,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 93, DET 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.66,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.92,0	92.5%
MIN 96, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.8,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.92,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.84,0	91.5%
HOU 90, LAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.91,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.89,0.72,0	91.3%