NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	3.3 [1093]		MVP	Gary Grant (MIA): +7.4%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	1.2 [550]		LVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): -21.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Grant	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	71%	0.07	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Sasha Danilovic	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	10	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	7	69%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	3	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Pinckney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	83%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	56%	-0.00	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	12	72%	0.05	4	-0.06	8	62%	-0.03
Ike Austin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	6	28%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaSalle Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	3	71%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	4	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Jeff McInnis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	19	59%	0.04	6	-0.08	8	62%	-0.02
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	12	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	56%	-0.00	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Sarunas Marciulionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	-0.00	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.25	-0.02	-0.06	17	26%	-0.08	7	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	28.4	15.6	27.2	2.3	23.0	123.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +39.5%

DEN -2.2%

DEN -15.7%

MIA +25.5%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.0	14.8	15.6	111.8	91.5	104.4
season	15.8	15.2		103.1	102.3
opponent	15.3	16.3		108.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	16.8	13.6	19.1	16.0
DEN	15.9	16.0	15.9	11.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	72	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.26	27	-9	36	14.4	21.3	-6.86	15.4	13.0	2.45
Alonzo Mourning	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.16	22	-4	26	14.8	19.7	-4.88	15.5	12.8	2.71
Tim Hardaway	66	65	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.04	16	2	14	15.5	17.1	-1.65	16.7	10.6	6.14
P.J. Brown	73	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.13	17	1	16	15.9	16.3	-0.41	16.1	10.3	5.85
Keith Askins	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	15	-12	17.9	14.6	3.39	13.1	16.1	-3.04
Sasha Danilovic	63	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	11	-4	16.0	15.9	0.17	16.0	12.4	3.60
Ike Austin	30	30	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.01	5	13	-8	16.3	15.8	0.52	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Gary Grant	35	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	15	-12	17.0	15.4	1.64	11.2	17.3	-6.03
Ed Pinckney	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	24	-30	25.3	15.2	10.06	7.3	15.4	-8.15
Mark Strickland	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	20	-22	20.2	15.7	4.46	7.3	15.3	-8.01
Voshon Lenard	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	20	-22	20.2	15.7	4.46	7.3	15.3	-8.01

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Murdock	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-20	22	9.9	15.5	-5.63	20.3	15.3	5.00
Sarunas Marciulionis	26	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-19	20	10.2	16.6	-6.41	16.7	15.7	0.93
Darvin Ham	26	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	-15	12	14.8	14.8	-0.03	13.6	17.0	-3.44
Tom Hammonds	22	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-15	12	14.9	14.8	0.10	15.1	16.2	-1.12
LaSalle Thompson	27	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-12	6	14.1	15.1	-0.96	16.8	15.7	1.12
Jeff McInnis	26	25	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-14	10	12.5	15.7	-3.17	16.4	15.8	0.52
Ervin Johnson	51	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-19	20	14.8	14.9	-0.14	16.8	14.9	1.97
Bryant Stith	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	-4	-10	16.1	12.7	3.46	17.2	13.9	3.30
Mark Jackson	68	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.06	-14	-4	-10	15.7	12.5	3.17	15.8	16.4	-0.52
Dale Ellis	73	72	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.16	-23	5	-28	15.8	11.4	4.38	15.7	16.9	-1.13
Antonio McDyess	80	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.27	-27	9	-36	15.5	11.1	4.42	14.7	23.8	-9.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 108, MIN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
PHX 106, DET 73	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
NOH 118, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	96.0%