NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	84		Excitement	9.2 [109]		MVP	Billy Owens (SAC): +21.0%
Vancouver Grizzlies	83		Comeback	5.5 [165]		LVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): -39.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Billy Owens	0.21	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21	0.05	0.16	0.00	12	63%	0.24	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.14	0.00	7	71%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Simmons	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.05	0.00	4	25%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	5	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Duane Causwell	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	15	47%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Tyus Edney	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	12	42%	-0.04	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	-0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.28,-0.4	-0.12	-0.28	-0.00	15	40%	-0.32	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Reeves	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.09	0.01	11	70%	0.26	4	-0.17	5	100%	0.07
Lee Mayberry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	43%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Lawrence Moten	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	10	60%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.08	2	-0.09	8	75%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Blue Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	12	33%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.26	-0.26	-0.05	-0.21	-0.00	14	42%	-0.22	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Greg Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.26	-0.26	-0.02	-0.26	-0.01	7	56%	-0.23	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	25.5	15.5	26.3	2.4	33.4	130.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +21.2%

VAN -9.3%

SAC +35.2%

VAN -6.8%

SAC +9.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	VAN	NBA	SAC	VAN	NBA
this game	16.4	18.5	15.6	101.2	101.2	104.4
season	15.4	16.3		102.4	97.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.2	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.6	15.3	17.1	19.1	16.4
VAN	19.0	16.7	19.8	18.8	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Smith	36	33	0.63	-0.14	0.77	0.40	8	-7	15	17.1	15.8	1.28	18.7	18.4	0.32
Lionel Simmons	27	26	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-3	7	16.7	16.2	0.42	17.8	18.9	-1.07
Olden Polynice	65	65	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	-2	5	17.0	14.3	2.69	18.9	17.3	1.57
Mitch Richmond	66	66	0.53	-0.04	0.57	0.47	2	-1	3	15.8	18.5	-2.70	18.8	17.2	1.60
Billy Owens	64	65	0.34	0.15	0.19	0.40	-2	3	-5	16.7	15.2	1.52	18.5	18.6	-0.07
Corliss Williamson	43	43	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	-5	11	15.8	17.0	-1.28	18.7	18.4	0.24
Tyus Edney	37	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	-4	9	16.9	16.0	0.86	18.0	19.0	-0.99
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	43	43	-0.24	0.73	-0.97	-0.03	-7	8	-15	15.3	17.6	-2.34	18.5	18.6	-0.10
Duane Causwell	34	34	-0.33	0.82	-1.16	0.08	-14	15	-29	16.4	16.4	-0.01	18.2	18.8	-0.56

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Lynch	34	34	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.06	2	-3	5	17.5	19.3	-1.77	17.2	15.8	1.39
Eric Mobley	27	26	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-1	1	18.6	18.5	0.03	14.6	17.2	-2.58
Roy Rogers	57	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	2	-5	19.4	16.6	2.73	15.3	18.7	-3.41
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	33	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.01	-8	7	-15	17.2	19.4	-2.22	17.0	15.9	1.06
Lawrence Moten	61	61	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	-0.44	5	-6	11	18.8	17.8	0.98	16.7	15.6	1.08
Greg Anthony	50	50	-0.40	-0.09	-0.31	-0.46	2	-3	5	18.6	18.4	0.21	17.2	15.1	2.15
Bryant Reeves	59	60	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.53	2	-3	5	18.5	18.6	-0.04	17.0	14.8	2.22
Lee Mayberry	32	33	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	2	-5	18.4	18.6	-0.21	15.1	17.2	-2.15
Blue Edwards	57	59	-0.58	0.09	-0.67	-0.52	-2	1	-3	18.8	17.9	0.94	16.4	16.2	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.78,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.85,0.58,0	91.4%
MIN 112, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.27,0	91.3%
BOS 102, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.7,0.65,0.59,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.32,0.37,0.76,0.42,0	91.0%