NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	112		Excitement	8.9 [128]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIN): +41.7%
Houston Rockets	108		Comeback	2.6 [165]		LVP	Jonny Flynn (MIN): -23.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.42	0.14	0.28	-0.00	10	75%	0.42	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Kevin Love	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.17,-0.1,0.07,0.07,0.18	0.03	0.16	0.01	14	59%	0.28	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.00	9	78%	0.19	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	11	59%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.01	-0.06	6	43%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Lazar Hayward	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Corey Brewer	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	11	43%	-0.05	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Jonny Flynn	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.24	-0.06	-0.17	0.01	14	52%	-0.08	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.13	0.00	18	59%	0.24	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.11	-0.03	15	59%	0.32	3	-0.13	9	100%	0.11
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.02	0.00	15	68%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.00	-0.11	-0.01	10	45%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.22
Shane Battier	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.02	-0.12	0.02	6	50%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	8	26%	-0.08	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	26.3	14.8	25.1	1.7	40.1	134.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +54.5%

MIN +4.9%

MIN +23.0%

HOU -16.5%

HOU -16.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	HOU	NBA	MIN	HOU	NBA
this game	14.6	14.8	15.5	113.1	111.3	105.7
season	14.3	15.2		102.7	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.5	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	12.7	15.0	14.7	16.3	14.6
HOU	15.6	13.8	13.5	16.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	49	48	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.39	10	-6	16	15.6	13.7	1.91	14.9	14.6	0.26
Anthony Tolliver	43	41	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.43	8	-4	12	15.9	13.6	2.26	15.1	14.5	0.54
Jonny Flynn	66	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	6	-8	13.8	16.3	-2.47	14.7	14.8	-0.07
Kevin Love	75	75	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	5	-6	14.1	16.4	-2.36	14.9	14.2	0.75
Wesley Johnson	56	57	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	-1	6	14.9	14.3	0.61	15.1	14.3	0.70
Kosta Koufos	39	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-4	12	15.3	14.2	1.17	14.1	15.1	-1.01
Sebastian Telfair	33	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	-2	8	16.3	13.8	2.47	14.8	14.7	0.07
Lazar Hayward	32	31	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	2	0	14.5	14.7	-0.14	13.7	15.3	-1.55
Corey Brewer	61	58	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.27	-9	13	-22	13.7	16.2	-2.53	14.9	14.5	0.42
Nikola Pekovic	41	41	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	11	-18	13.7	15.3	-1.65	14.7	14.8	-0.10

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	18	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-2	0	14.1	14.9	-0.80	14.7	14.6	0.14
Brad Miller	15	17	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	0	-4	13.3	15.0	-1.69	14.6	14.6	0.03
Charles Hayes	74	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-6	8	15.1	13.8	1.28	14.5	15.0	-0.55
Kevin Martin	68	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.33	2	-6	8	14.7	15.0	-0.34	14.1	15.9	-1.81
Luis Scola	77	77	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-6	8	14.6	15.3	-0.74	14.5	15.1	-0.66
Courtney Lee	54	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	5	-14	14.9	14.6	0.33	15.3	13.7	1.64
Aaron Brooks	37	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.08	-9	5	-14	15.0	14.6	0.38	16.2	13.6	2.65
Kyle Lowry	68	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.37	1	-5	6	15.0	14.1	0.89	14.0	15.9	-1.86
Shane Battier	74	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.50	-3	-1	-2	14.7	15.0	-0.31	14.6	14.9	-0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, SEA 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.32,0.47,0.29,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.34,0.27,0	92.5%
DET 106, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	92.4%
PHI 97, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.41,0	92.2%