NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	8.3 [219]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +41.7%
Golden State Warriors	103		Comeback	2.6 [280]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -34.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.42	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.42	0.19	0.23	0.00	15	78%	0.52	2	-0.10	7	100%	0.08
Rasheed Wallace	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.14	0.01	16	55%	0.22	3	-0.07	8	75%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.00	19	52%	0.08	2	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	14	47%	0.07	1	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.22,0.13,0.29	0.29	0.14	0.17	0.02	26	64%	0.38	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	11	60%	0.18	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Ike Diogu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Zarko Cabarkapa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	10	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	10	90%	0.04
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	7	43%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.2,-0.29,-0.35	-0.35	-0.09	-0.27	-0.01	18	35%	-0.19	2	-0.15	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	2.5	30.4	16.4	25.1	1.7	36.4	133.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +81.5%

GSW -18.4%

GSW -8.0%

GSW -6.9%

DET +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	GSW	NBA	DET	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	15.0	15.6	114.0	113.2	104.4
season	16.9	14.8		108.3	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		104.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.6	16.8	16.0	13.3	16.3
GSW	15.4	14.5	15.3	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	83	82	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.47	5	-2	7	16.2	16.5	-0.26	14.9	15.8	-0.84
Tayshaun Prince	70	69	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.46	-1	4	-5	16.6	15.1	1.51	15.3	14.2	1.05
Richard Hamilton	80	79	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	2	-1	15.7	19.9	-4.25	14.8	16.2	-1.32
Carlos Arroyo	23	21	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	-2	7	14.3	16.9	-2.67	14.8	15.1	-0.28
Ben Wallace	73	71	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.35	-2	5	-7	16.7	14.5	2.19	15.3	14.0	1.31
Maurice Evans	36	34	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	-3	9	16.9	15.9	0.97	14.9	15.1	-0.18
Chauncey Billups	70	70	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	5	-7	16.9	14.3	2.67	15.1	14.8	0.28
Antonio McDyess	30	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	0	3	15.2	16.8	-1.58	14.6	15.2	-0.69

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zarko Cabarkapa	10	10	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.05	3	-6	9	14.7	15.1	-0.36	16.9	16.2	0.71
Calbert Cheaney	6	6	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-3	3	20.7	14.6	6.04	18.8	16.1	2.74
Ike Diogu	34	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	14.4	15.4	-0.93	14.9	17.1	-2.13
Derek Fisher	48	51	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-2	1	14.1	16.0	-1.90	14.7	18.1	-3.42
Baron Davis	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-3	3	15.2	14.1	1.06	16.6	14.6	2.06
Jason Richardson	82	84	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-4	5	14.6	18.8	-4.17	16.0	19.1	-3.15
Adonal Foyle	54	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-1	-1	16.0	13.6	2.45	18.0	13.8	4.19
Troy Murphy	73	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.33	-7	4	-11	15.4	13.6	1.83	16.4	15.7	0.72
Mike Dunleavy	72	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.34	-7	4	-11	14.6	16.5	-1.83	16.2	16.6	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.55,0.33,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 112, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.63,0.45,0.27,0	92.4%
CHI 94, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.37,0.3,0.4,0.53,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.16,0	91.8%
WAS 99, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.53,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.6,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.22,0.28,0	91.6%