NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	7.1 [393]		MVP	Terry Mills (DET): +19.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Comeback	3.5 [240]		LVP	Terrell Brandon (CLE): -14.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.14	0.01	7	76%	0.24	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.11	-0.01	15	63%	0.23	3	-0.09	13	77%	-0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.00	14	64%	0.18	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Otis Thorpe	0.10	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.01	11	67%	0.11	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01
Don Reid	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Dumars	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Theo Ratliff	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Stacey Augmon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.03	10	65%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	8	68%	0.11	0	0.00	9	44%	-0.04
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.08	0.00	10	45%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	2	100%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	-0.05	0.02	5	83%	0.06	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	6	59%	-0.05	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.19,-0.16,-0.14	-0.14	0.01	-0.12	0.03	20	58%	0.07	4	-0.21	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	32.0	16.8	29.4	2.0	42.0	149.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +22.1%

DET +20.4%

CLE -11.2%

DET +15.9%

DET +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	18.7	16.8	15.6	125.9	121.0	104.4
season	17.1	17.8		107.6	102.1
opponent	16.1	16.2		100.0	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	25.1	17.1	18.7	15.3	18.7
CLE	14.9	16.4	18.2	17.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lindsey Hunter	76	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.36	9	-5	14	19.0	15.0	3.99	16.7	18.0	-1.26
Otis Thorpe	53	52	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.37	8	-4	12	19.4	17.4	2.01	17.5	15.6	1.91
Joe Dumars	65	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.44	4	0	4	18.6	19.4	-0.87	16.7	17.2	-0.54
Grant Hill	73	72	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-1	6	19.1	15.2	3.87	17.1	14.4	2.67
Terry Mills	37	38	0.40	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	-2	8	19.2	18.3	0.88	16.5	17.1	-0.59
Theo Ratliff	7	8	0.07	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	0	4	14.1	19.2	-5.03	18.7	16.6	2.15
Kenny Smith	1	1	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	2	0	21.0	18.7	2.29	0.0	17.0	-17.02
Grant Long	31	31	-0.03	0.52	-0.55	-0.09	2	2	0	21.4	17.1	4.23	18.0	16.1	1.97
Stacey Augmon	20	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	16.9	19.3	-2.44	17.2	16.7	0.51
Michael Curry	15	13	-0.11	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	10	-16	13.3	20.0	-6.72	13.7	17.4	-3.72
Don Reid	27	28	-0.15	0.64	-0.80	0.17	-11	15	-26	17.9	19.1	-1.22	15.5	17.5	-1.95

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Lang	22	21	0.22	-0.71	0.93	0.01	7	-11	18	16.6	16.9	-0.24	17.6	19.1	-1.58
Mark West	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-2	0	21.6	16.1	5.46	21.2	18.4	2.81
Vitaly Potapenko	15	15	-0.09	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	0	-4	18.9	16.3	2.60	16.5	19.3	-2.79
Danny Ferry	64	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-7	10	16.1	19.6	-3.51	18.2	20.6	-2.41
Bob Sura	43	44	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.28	-2	-2	0	16.8	16.8	-0.00	17.5	20.2	-2.67
Terrell Brandon	69	69	-0.40	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	3	-10	16.4	19.2	-2.76	19.3	15.7	3.61
Chris Mills	54	54	-0.42	-0.07	-0.35	-0.19	-8	4	-12	16.9	16.7	0.22	19.7	16.9	2.83
Tyrone Hill	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-1	-2	16.6	18.6	-1.96	19.3	14.3	4.96
Bobby Phills	56	56	-0.60	0.11	-0.71	-0.48	-4	0	-4	17.0	16.4	0.66	18.6	19.0	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.59,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.73,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.05,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, CLE 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.57,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.19,0.37,0.22,0.08,0	92.6%
UTA 84, VAN 75	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	92.5%
SAC 96, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	92.5%