NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	114		Excitement	6.1 [579]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +24.9%
Golden State Warriors	109		Comeback	2.6 [242]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -4.4%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0.25	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25	0.22	0.04	0.01	12	92%	0.28	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.03	-0.03	21	67%	0.27	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.13	-0.02	0.09	-0.05	26	45%	0.15	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Herbert Jones	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Dyson Daniels	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Alvarado	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	9	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Moses Moody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trayce Jackson-Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.07
Brandin Podziemski	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	19	45%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.08	-0.06	0.04	23	69%	0.22	7	-0.24	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	27.4	15.5	26.4	2.4	34.5	133.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +33.0%

GSW -1.5%

GSW -9.7%

NOP +25.1%

NOP +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	GSW	NBA	NOP	GSW	NBA
this game	14.5	13.9	14.5	111.8	107.9	113.9
season	14.4	14.3		114.8	116.2
opponent	14.4	14.7		114.1	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.3	12.7	14.3	16.6	14.5
GSW	12.3	15.0	15.7	12.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zion Williamson	80	78	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.37	15	-10	25	14.2	15.5	-1.31	13.7	14.6	-0.92
Jose Alvarado	73	72	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.21	18	-13	31	14.5	14.4	0.13	14.8	11.6	3.25
Herbert Jones	79	79	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-1	7	14.4	14.7	-0.29	14.5	11.9	2.60
Trey Murphy III	93	91	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	14.5	14.3	0.15	13.4	18.8	-5.44
Dyson Daniels	54	53	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.23	5	0	5	14.9	14.0	0.89	14.4	13.3	1.08
CJ McCollum	80	80	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	10	-15	14.5	14.5	0.02	13.4	15.9	-2.53
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	6	-7	12.9	14.7	-1.80	14.5	13.8	0.74
Jonas Valanciunas	36	37	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.08	-17	22	-39	15.1	14.1	1.03	12.8	14.5	-1.76

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trayce Jackson-Davis	48	48	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.11	12	-17	29	14.1	13.7	0.35	13.9	15.0	-1.09
Moses Moody	38	37	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-10	15	14.6	13.5	1.13	15.2	14.1	1.09
Kevon Looney	18	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-2	-1	14.6	13.8	0.80	14.5	14.5	0.03
Klay Thompson	80	83	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.38	8	-13	21	13.3	16.0	-2.71	14.8	13.1	1.68
Chris Paul	57	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	13.9	13.9	-0.01	14.6	14.2	0.39
Andrew Wiggins	73	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.39	-4	-1	-3	14.0	13.5	0.51	14.1	15.4	-1.37
Brandin Podziemski	46	45	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.15	-25	20	-45	15.0	13.0	1.98	15.0	14.1	0.95
Draymond Green	76	79	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.47	-6	1	-7	13.3	15.6	-2.31	14.4	14.7	-0.23
Stephen Curry	69	71	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.47	-8	3	-11	13.6	14.5	-0.83	14.1	15.3	-1.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.35,0.26,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.13,0.1,0,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	92.3%
DAL 103, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.68,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.01,0	91.6%
WAS 110, LAC 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.12,0.24,0.15,0.16,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.11,0.04,0	91.5%