NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	7.6 [342]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +38.4%
Charlotte Hornets	114		Comeback	1.1 [953]		LVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): -7.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.38	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.21	0.18	0.01	14	77%	0.38	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Kevin Love	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.09	-0.00	11	83%	0.27	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	0.00	8	82%	0.19	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.09	0.10	-0.02	-0.02	12	70%	0.15	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	14	57%	0.11	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Thomas Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.05	-0.01	6	21%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.08
Josh Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	7	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31	0.31	0.24	0.06	-0.01	17	83%	0.38	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.01	12	61%	0.17	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	11	58%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Brandon Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	14	60%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nick Richards	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JT Thor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	26.2	15.4	31.4	0.2	39.5	139.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.8%

MIA +9.0%

MIA +25.9%

MIA +1.6%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.1	15.4	14.5	123.4	120.0	113.9
season	14.9	14.8		112.3	108.3
opponent	14.5	14.8		118.7	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	13.3	15.7	16.4	15.1
CHA	15.4	15.5	16.4	14.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	66	66	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.42	13	-11	24	15.2	15.0	0.17	16.5	12.8	3.69
Kevin Love	39	40	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-6	14	15.2	15.0	0.19	16.4	14.6	1.80
Kyle Lowry	66	66	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-4	10	15.6	14.0	1.59	16.1	13.7	2.40
Caleb Martin	76	78	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.44	0	2	-2	14.9	15.9	-1.02	15.1	16.6	-1.57
Duncan Robinson	66	68	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.36	1	1	0	15.3	14.7	0.57	14.7	17.1	-2.40
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	50	51	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.15	-2	4	-6	14.3	16.1	-1.83	14.7	16.1	-1.41
Thomas Bryant	9	8	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	0	2	12.6	15.4	-2.83	13.9	15.5	-1.62
Josh Richardson	54	53	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	13	-24	14.9	15.4	-0.45	14.5	16.5	-2.05
Orlando Robinson	44	45	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.02	-7	9	-16	16.0	14.3	1.75	15.3	15.4	-0.13

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce McGowens	47	45	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.16	9	-11	20	15.1	15.6	-0.46	14.6	15.6	-1.03
JT Thor	20	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	3	-8	12.8	16.0	-3.24	13.1	15.6	-2.50
Ish Smith	29	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	1	-4	14.8	15.6	-0.81	14.5	15.4	-0.99
Brandon Miller	59	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-5	8	14.5	16.7	-2.15	15.9	13.7	2.21
Miles Bridges	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-5	8	15.9	14.2	1.67	15.4	14.4	1.00
P.J. Washington	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.47	6	-8	14	15.1	15.8	-0.75	15.4	14.7	0.70
Terry Rozier	78	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.46	4	-6	10	15.7	13.8	1.94	15.1	15.0	0.15
Nick Richards	51	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	12	-26	16.3	14.2	2.06	15.3	14.9	0.36
Gordon Hayward	62	62	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.33	-13	11	-24	15.9	14.3	1.57	15.0	15.4	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.2,0.14,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.13,0.25,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.15,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.08,0	93.5%
WAS 109, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.02,0	93.1%
ORL 102, PHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.17,0.23,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.2,0.07,0.02,0.01,0	92.8%