NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	118		Excitement	11.2 [38]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +63.5%
Charlotte Hornets	121		Comeback	207.3 [6]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -30.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.64	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.64	0.27	0.35	-0.01	28	68%	0.68	3	-0.05	10	80%	-0.08
Payton Pritchard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.12,0.12	0.17	-0.05	-0.00	14	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kristaps Porzingis	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.01	14	45%	0.08	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.03
Luke Kornet	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oshae Brissett	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jrue Holiday	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.15	-0.09	-0.04	11	46%	-0.06	7	-0.14	2	0%	-0.10
Sam Hauser	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.13	-0.03	9	17%	-0.18	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.30	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.3	-0.11	-0.19	0.00	17	34%	-0.25	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.04

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.27	0.27	-0.02	0.26	-0.03	13	44%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.32,0.38,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.11	0.02	27	65%	0.43	5	-0.21	1	100%	0.01
Gordon Hayward	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,-0.01,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.13	0.00	15	53%	0.18	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.01	13	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JT Thor	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.08	0.03	14	60%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Bryce McGowens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	12	37%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.5	26.2	14.5	23.6	2.4	28.3	2.4	13.9	137.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.4	15.0	135.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +43.1%

BOS -1.6%

CHA +12.6%

CHA +0.8%

BOS -4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHA	NBA	BOS	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	14.1	14.5	108.3	112.0	113.9
season	14.7	14.8		121.4	108.3
opponent	14.5	14.7		118.7	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	14.0	13.6	14.2	19.1	16.0	15.2
CHA	13.7	14.6	14.6	13.4	14.0	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	35	34	0.75	-1.25	2.00	0.02	25	-28	53	14.9	15.4	-0.51	16.9	12.8	4.10
Payton Pritchard	66	65	0.48	-0.98	1.47	0.01	16	-19	35	15.6	14.6	0.95	15.4	12.1	3.38
Svi Mykhailiuk	16	15	0.34	-0.84	1.19	0.14	7	-10	17	17.9	14.7	3.21	16.3	13.7	2.59
Oshae Brissett	35	34	0.33	-0.83	1.17	-0.16	17	-20	37	14.8	15.4	-0.59	16.6	13.0	3.59
Jayson Tatum	92	91	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.51	-5	2	-7	14.8	17.3	-2.48	13.8	15.9	-2.18
Jrue Holiday	77	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.61	-4	1	-5	14.8	16.2	-1.40	13.9	14.7	-0.87
Sam Hauser	80	78	-0.88	0.38	-1.27	-0.24	-22	19	-41	15.2	15.2	0.04	12.9	17.2	-4.29
Kristaps Porzingis	73	74	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.26	-26	23	-49	15.5	14.6	0.84	12.8	16.9	-4.10
Jaylen Brown	71	71	-1.12	0.62	-1.75	-0.45	-23	20	-43	15.3	15.1	0.15	13.2	15.8	-2.52

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Williams	70	70	1.24	-0.74	1.97	0.27	33	-30	63	12.8	16.5	-3.74	15.9	14.0	1.83
Brandon Miller	81	82	1.02	-0.52	1.53	0.37	22	-19	41	13.4	16.3	-2.93	15.4	14.5	0.96
Gordon Hayward	81	82	0.98	-0.48	1.47	0.40	20	-17	37	13.3	16.6	-3.37	15.4	14.7	0.61
LaMelo Ball	85	88	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	0	3	13.9	15.0	-1.09	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Miles Bridges	91	93	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.51	-6	9	-15	14.3	13.1	1.24	15.1	15.7	-0.57
JT Thor	10	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.08	-7	10	-17	18.5	13.7	4.85	12.9	15.4	-2.52
Ish Smith	39	39	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.05	-12	15	-27	15.4	13.4	1.97	15.4	15.1	0.32
Bryce McGowens	27	27	-0.48	0.98	-1.47	0.01	-17	20	-37	16.6	13.3	3.37	14.7	15.4	-0.61
P.J. Washington	56	55	-0.56	1.06	-1.63	0.05	-21	24	-45	15.2	12.9	2.24	14.5	15.9	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0,0.04,0.46,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 88, POR 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.73,1	89.9%
ATL 98, CHI 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.26,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.28,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.08,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.86,0.72,1	89.2%
SAS 99, DAL 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0	88.8%