NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	5.9 [743]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +21.9%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.2 [1178]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -9.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.08	-0.00	15	66%	0.21	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	9	68%	0.09	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Patrick Williams	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ayo Dosunmu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Alex Caruso	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.03,0.15,0.09,-0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.03	24	53%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Coby White	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.19	0.08	0.05	21	64%	0.24	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.07
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.01	15	62%	0.19	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	6	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	21	40%	-0.03	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.4	25.6	14.7	27.2	2.4	26.6	122.4
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +9.5%

BOS +23.7%

BOS +7.7%

BOS +2.9%

BOS +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	15.7	14.4	103.1	112.6	113.4
season	14.1	14.5		112.0	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.9		110.6	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	13.5	15.4	14.9	14.5
BOS	14.5	12.7	15.9	21.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	25	26	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.18	10	-18	28	14.3	14.5	-0.19	18.4	14.7	3.69
Andre Drummond	26	28	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.18	10	-18	28	14.3	14.5	-0.21	17.6	14.9	2.65
Coby White	38	40	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-8	8	14.8	14.2	0.55	14.9	16.3	-1.30
Goran Dragic	34	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-8	8	13.5	15.0	-1.53	15.4	15.9	-0.43
Alex Caruso	39	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-8	8	13.3	15.2	-1.94	16.4	15.2	1.15
DeMar DeRozan	50	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	4	-16	14.4	14.6	-0.21	14.2	17.3	-3.07
Ayo Dosunmu	55	53	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	-2	-4	15.2	13.5	1.69	16.5	14.7	1.78
Patrick Williams	60	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	4	-16	15.0	13.5	1.49	15.0	16.8	-1.81
Zach LaVine	83	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	4	-16	14.5	14.4	0.09	15.9	14.4	1.47
Nikola Vucevic	70	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.08	-18	10	-28	14.5	14.3	0.21	14.9	17.6	-2.65

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	58	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.04	21	-13	34	16.1	15.2	0.89	14.4	14.6	-0.24
Jaylen Brown	76	78	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.03	20	-12	32	15.5	16.6	-1.16	14.4	14.8	-0.46
Al Horford	65	68	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-9	26	15.2	16.7	-1.45	14.7	13.8	0.90
Jayson Tatum	75	77	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-6	20	15.3	17.4	-2.15	14.4	14.7	-0.28
Grant Williams	69	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	4	0	16.3	14.1	2.24	15.1	12.7	2.39
Payton Pritchard	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	10	-12	16.9	15.6	1.24	16.7	14.3	2.36
Luke Kornet	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	8	-8	12.1	16.0	-3.85	14.7	14.4	0.28
Robert Williams III	49	48	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	13	-18	16.0	15.4	0.52	13.1	15.8	-2.75
Sam Hauser	25	25	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.17	-12	20	-32	15.3	15.8	-0.52	14.2	14.6	-0.40
Malcolm Brogdon	44	42	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.30	-17	25	-42	16.5	15.1	1.40	14.7	14.3	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.76,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 91, CLE 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.9,0.95,0.84,0.73,1	94.0%
ORL 96, BOS 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.81,0.8,0.91,0.97,0.9,0.9,0.94,1,1	93.1%
SAC 109, MIL 112	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.99,1	93.1%