NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	126		Excitement	9.6 [119]		MVP	Lauri Markkanen (UTA): +56.1%
Utah Jazz	123		Comeback	3.5 [280]		LVP	Kelly Olynyk (UTA): -22.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.44	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.44	0.05	0.39	-0.00	20	62%	0.63	5	-0.19	7	86%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	0.30	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.16	0.15	0.01	17	68%	0.36	2	-0.06	13	77%	0.04
Victor Oladipo	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.19	0.10	0.06	-0.03	15	62%	0.25	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Max Strus	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.07	-0.03	9	72%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.03	8	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Robinson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lauri Markkanen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.56	0.56	0.20	0.35	-0.01	15	69%	0.58	1	-0.02	12	100%	0.24
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.00	11	56%	0.20	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	90%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	-0.02	0.00	11	77%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.02	14	58%	0.14	4	-0.18	10	50%	-0.10
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.04	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Walker Kessler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	6	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	10	48%	0.01	5	-0.23	9	78%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.5	31.4	14.5	27.2	1.8	41.8	146.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +74.6%

UTA -37.7%

UTA -12.9%

MIA +23.0%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	14.4	127.3	121.8	113.4
season	15.1	14.3		111.9	114.4
opponent	14.1	14.6		115.5	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.9	13.2	15.2	13.4	13.9
UTA	14.9	16.1	13.0	15.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Max Strus	65	69	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.70	8	-5	13	14.1	13.6	0.53	14.4	15.9	-1.50
Gabe Vincent	48	51	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.46	8	-5	13	13.7	14.2	-0.53	14.6	15.1	-0.53
Bam Adebayo	76	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.39	6	-3	9	13.8	14.5	-0.76	14.8	14.9	-0.03
Victor Oladipo	70	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-1	5	14.1	13.7	0.40	15.2	14.0	1.28
Tyler Herro	72	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.46	-2	5	-7	13.3	15.5	-2.17	14.4	16.2	-1.82
Duncan Robinson	40	40	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.09	12	-9	21	15.0	13.2	1.82	16.8	13.6	3.23
Orlando Robinson	23	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	14.5	13.8	0.76	14.9	14.8	0.03
Jamal Cain	9	8	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	8	-13	15.0	13.8	1.17	12.0	15.1	-3.10
Kyle Lowry	54	55	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.03	-4	7	-11	14.0	13.8	0.17	14.9	14.8	0.13
Haywood Highsmith	38	37	-0.58	1.08	-1.66	-0.32	-9	12	-21	13.4	14.3	-0.93	14.8	14.9	-0.15

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	35	36	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.26	-7	4	-11	16.6	13.9	2.68	14.3	13.7	0.58
Rudy Gay	29	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-2	1	15.5	14.6	0.93	15.5	13.3	2.13
Walker Kessler	62	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-11	19	14.8	14.9	-0.16	14.5	13.0	1.57
Jordan Clarkson	76	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.47	8	-11	19	14.3	16.4	-2.06	13.6	14.8	-1.18
Jarred Vanderbilt	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.03	-12	9	-21	16.0	14.2	1.74	13.5	14.2	-0.73
Collin Sexton	51	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-2	1	14.6	15.1	-0.49	14.4	13.5	0.93
Lauri Markkanen	79	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-2	1	14.1	17.5	-3.39	13.4	15.7	-2.24
Kelly Olynyk	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-1	-1	14.6	15.5	-0.93	13.3	15.5	-2.13
Mike Conley	65	66	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.36	-7	4	-11	15.0	14.5	0.50	14.0	13.8	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.44,0.55,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.71,0.75,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.32,0.07,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.1,0.16,0	92.9%
NOH 92, MIL 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.38,0.15,0.15,0.1,0	91.8%
TOR 104, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.11,0.03,0,0	91.6%