NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	128		Excitement	8.8 [207]		MVP	Trey Murphy III (NOP): +36.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	125		Comeback	65.2 [25]		LVP	Isaiah Joe (OKC): -10.4%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trey Murphy III	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.16	0.21	0.00	13	82%	0.40	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jaxson Hayes	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.35,0.31	0.12	0.19	0.01	9	81%	0.35	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Herbert Jones	0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	-0.05	0.15	-0.04	12	47%	0.23	3	-0.09	8	87%	-0.01
Devonte' Graham	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01	0.00	-0.05	-0.04	10	57%	0.11	3	-0.12	10	80%	0.02
CJ McCollum	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.09	0.04	-0.00	18	42%	0.10	4	-0.15	4	100%	0.02
Dyson Daniels	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Alvarado	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.08	0.02	10	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.32	0.32	0.23	0.13	0.04	29	66%	0.36	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.05
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	6	60%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Aleksej Pokusevski	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.02	0.02	11	77%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	4	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Josh Giddey	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	15	67%	0.18	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.09	0.06	-0.02	12	39%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Lindy Waters III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tre Mann	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	37%	-0.00	2	-0.09	7	57%	-0.03
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	26.5	15.4	24.5	2.4	36.7	0.7	14.7	148.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +34.8%

NOP +4.7%

NOP +21.2%

OKC -8.5%

OKC -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	OKC	NBA	NOP	OKC	NBA
this game	13.3	13.0	14.4	106.7	102.5	113.4
season	14.2	13.7		113.4	113.5
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.8	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOP	11.4	12.5	16.2	13.5	13.3	13.3
OKC	12.2	13.2	11.7	16.0	11.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Murphy III	89	92	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.70	6	-3	9	13.2	13.5	-0.38	13.5	11.5	2.06
CJ McCollum	80	84	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.64	3	0	3	12.8	14.2	-1.36	13.4	12.1	1.29
Herbert Jones	81	85	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.62	3	0	3	12.8	14.3	-1.58	13.4	12.2	1.23
Naji Marshall	78	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.65	-2	5	-7	13.2	13.4	-0.21	12.6	13.7	-1.05
Jaxson Hayes	62	63	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-2	7	12.9	13.6	-0.69	13.1	12.9	0.23
Dyson Daniels	34	33	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	1	1	13.4	13.2	0.24	12.1	13.4	-1.27
Willy Hernangomez	22	22	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	3	-3	13.5	13.2	0.29	12.1	13.2	-1.13
Jose Alvarado	49	47	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.35	2	1	1	14.2	12.6	1.65	13.3	12.9	0.39
Jonas Valanciunas	63	63	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.21	-3	6	-9	13.8	12.7	1.04	12.6	13.5	-0.92
Devonte' Graham	42	42	-0.37	0.87	-1.23	-0.34	-1	4	-5	13.8	13.0	0.84	12.5	13.3	-0.79

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	33	33	0.51	-1.01	1.51	0.15	12	-15	27	12.2	13.3	-1.14	14.5	12.8	1.68
Tre Mann	31	32	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-8	13	13.0	13.0	-0.07	13.5	13.2	0.32
Lindy Waters III	23	21	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.19	11	-14	25	10.9	13.5	-2.59	14.4	13.0	1.35
Aaron Wiggins	13	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	12.8	13.0	-0.28	14.5	13.1	1.40
Darius Bazley	9	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	3	-9	13.1	13.0	0.10	11.3	13.4	-2.15
Josh Giddey	77	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.43	10	-13	23	12.5	13.9	-1.35	13.7	12.4	1.32
Isaiah Joe	30	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	5	-13	11.6	13.5	-1.92	11.1	14.0	-2.85
Kenrich Williams	60	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.14	-11	8	-19	13.6	12.4	1.18	13.3	13.3	0.01
Jalen Williams	69	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	6	-15	13.7	12.1	1.56	13.4	13.1	0.23
Aleksej Pokusevski	73	70	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.48	-6	3	-9	13.7	12.0	1.70	13.2	13.3	-0.13
Luguentz Dort	93	90	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.62	-5	2	-7	13.4	11.7	1.79	12.8	14.6	-1.73
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	99	97	-0.83	0.33	-1.17	-0.66	-6	3	-9	12.9	13.5	-0.57	13.2	13.6	-0.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.23,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.19,0.25,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.67,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.8,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.54,0.61,0.36,0.22,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 122, LAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.32,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.26,0.22,0.43,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.88,0.95,1,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.46,0.69,0.46,0.09,0.02,0	88.2%
CHA 108, MIN 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.33,0.04,0	87.3%
PHX 111, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.36,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.71,0.63,0.57,0.84,0.54,0.55,0.29,0.32,0.16,0	86.9%