NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	115		Excitement	9.2 [149]		MVP	Devin Vassell (SAS): +46.2%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	2.8 [127]		LVP	Tre Jones (SAS): -16.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21,0.46,0.46	0.09	0.37	-0.01	13	60%	0.49	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Romeo Langford	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.11	0.12	-0.00	10	79%	0.28	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
Doug McDermott	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	81%	0.16	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charles Bassey	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.12	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	84%	0.25	4	-0.20	5	60%	0.00
Isaiah Roby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Malaki Branham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	15	57%	0.11	5	-0.13	7	100%	0.06
Josh Richardson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	7	21%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tre Jones	-0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.03	-0.08	0.05	8	42%	-0.08	1	-0.08	8	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.12	0.01	16	71%	0.35	2	-0.06	10	80%	-0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.32,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.14	0.01	9	67%	0.23	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	7	69%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	7	80%	0.15	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	43%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.03
Tyler Herro	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.09	-0.09	0.05	-0.14	0.01	16	64%	0.00	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	8	12%	-0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	27.2	14.8	27.0	1.7	38.9	139.3
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +27.6%

SAS +28.6%

SAS +39.5%

MIA -44.4%

MIA -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.1	14.4	119.8	114.4	113.4
season	14.0	15.1		109.2	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.1		112.1	119.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.5	12.0	17.7	16.6	14.8
MIA	14.2	16.4	15.0	14.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	52	46	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.03	22	-18	40	14.9	14.5	0.40	14.9	15.3	-0.36
Tre Jones	73	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-2	8	15.0	14.1	0.83	14.2	17.5	-3.23
Devin Vassell	54	55	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.35	5	-1	6	14.5	15.0	-0.51	14.5	15.8	-1.32
Zach Collins	62	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	0	4	14.1	15.9	-1.83	14.9	15.4	-0.46
Josh Richardson	43	45	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	0	4	14.7	14.8	-0.07	16.0	14.3	1.63
Keldon Johnson	69	72	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.37	-7	11	-18	15.1	13.9	1.16	15.4	14.2	1.19
Charles Bassey	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	2	0	15.5	14.3	1.14	14.9	15.2	-0.26
Romeo Langford	55	60	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	7	-10	14.8	14.7	0.18	15.8	14.0	1.79
Isaiah Roby	8	7	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	1	2	10.4	15.2	-4.78	14.7	15.1	-0.40
Malaki Branham	30	31	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.13	-14	18	-32	14.7	14.8	-0.09	15.1	15.1	0.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	65	64	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.35	8	-12	20	15.1	15.1	0.03	14.9	14.4	0.48
Max Strus	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	3	-10	15.8	14.7	1.14	11.9	16.3	-4.41
Bam Adebayo	66	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-8	12	15.3	14.5	0.78	15.5	13.4	2.13
Kyle Lowry	80	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.46	7	-11	18	15.0	15.4	-0.40	15.5	11.9	3.61
Dewayne Dedmon	31	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	4	-12	14.5	15.3	-0.78	13.8	15.3	-1.53
Duncan Robinson	16	16	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.10	-6	2	-8	14.9	15.1	-0.25	16.6	14.4	2.24
Tyler Herro	72	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-1	-2	15.0	15.4	-0.43	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Caleb Martin	76	75	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-1	-2	14.9	15.8	-0.87	14.7	15.1	-0.49
Victor Oladipo	45	46	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.11	-12	8	-20	15.2	15.0	0.22	14.7	14.8	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.32,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 78, MIN 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.27,0	93.4%
HOU 104, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.4,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.23,0.15,0	92.1%
DET 94, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.3,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.17,0	91.9%