NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	78		Excitement	8.0 [269]		MVP	Nikola Pekovic (MIN): +8.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	74		Comeback	4.0 [204]		LVP	Andrew Wiggins (MIN): -55.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	15	54%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Gary Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	0.00	14	44%	0.08	1	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05
Randy Foye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kostas Papanikolaou	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	0.00	-0.10	0.00	8	44%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	8	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	4	86%	0.13	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	45%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	60%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.05	0.03	8	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.09	-0.01	14	47%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	5	20%	-0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.15	0.01	4	50%	-0.08	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.56	-0.56	-0.16	-0.39	0.00	14	32%	-0.34	4	-0.22	6	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.6	28.3	15.4	24.7	1.0	40.1	136.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.2%

MIN -1.7%

MIN -1.6%

DEN +8.4%

MIN -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	17.1	17.2	14.9	91.8	89.2	105.1
season	14.9	14.8		104.3	104.8
opponent	15.0	14.9		108.4	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.5	17.3	16.9	17.6	17.1
MIN	16.2	17.8	17.4	17.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	48	46	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.38	16	-12	28	16.9	17.3	-0.33	18.5	15.6	2.81
Darrell Arthur	52	50	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.44	13	-9	22	16.6	17.8	-1.20	18.1	15.9	2.20
Will Barton	45	44	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-11	26	16.4	17.8	-1.45	18.2	16.1	2.08
Jusuf Nurkic	37	38	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	-5	14	16.9	17.2	-0.39	17.9	16.6	1.32
Danilo Gallinari	63	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	17.2	16.7	0.54	17.0	17.8	-0.83
Kostas Papanikolaou	19	20	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	-1	6	15.7	17.5	-1.80	17.7	17.0	0.72
Gary Harris	45	42	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.36	-12	16	-28	17.4	16.7	0.77	16.0	18.5	-2.54
Nikola Jokic	46	44	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	11	-18	18.0	16.1	1.91	16.9	17.6	-0.73
Jameer Nelson	37	37	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	14	-24	17.3	16.9	0.33	15.6	18.5	-2.81
Kenneth Faried	33	33	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.02	-11	15	-26	17.8	16.6	1.20	15.9	18.1	-2.20

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	35	37	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.16	11	-15	26	15.7	18.3	-2.63	19.6	15.1	4.45
Ricky Rubio	53	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-9	14	16.9	17.7	-0.83	17.7	15.9	1.83
Shabazz Muhammad	30	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	1	-6	16.4	17.7	-1.26	15.8	17.8	-2.03
Karl-Anthony Towns	55	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-5	6	17.1	17.3	-0.18	18.4	14.6	3.79
Tayshaun Prince	54	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-7	10	17.5	16.6	0.90	17.8	15.8	2.03
Nikola Pekovic	28	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	1	-6	17.3	17.1	0.18	14.6	18.4	-3.79
Kevin Martin	30	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	2	-8	16.6	17.5	-0.89	14.9	18.4	-3.54
Zach LaVine	30	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	5	-14	17.7	16.9	0.83	15.9	17.7	-1.83
Andrew Wiggins	53	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-2	0	17.4	16.8	0.63	17.8	15.8	1.98
Gorgui Dieng	47	46	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	9	-22	18.6	15.4	3.21	15.8	18.6	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 99, DAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.4,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.04,0	92.5%
HOU 104, UTA 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.4,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.23,0.15,0	92.0%
SAS 116, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.21,0.23,0.16,0	91.7%