NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	116		Excitement	8.7 [214]		MVP	Derrick Rose (MIN): +24.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Comeback	4.6 [243]		LVP	Dario Saric (MIN): -6.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Davis Bertans	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.13	0.11	0.00	5	100%	0.24	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14	0.03	0.11	0.01	14	67%	0.33	5	-0.20	5	80%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.04	0.02	8	88%	0.19	2	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	14	56%	0.13	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.06
Bryn Forbes	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.02	20	48%	0.12	4	-0.15	12	75%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.24	0.24	0.05	0.19	-0.00	16	53%	0.27	1	-0.03	11	100%	0.08
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	7	59%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.10	2	-0.08	8	75%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	58%	0.06	1	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.01	17	57%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.07	0.03	12	65%	0.08	2	-0.12	2	0%	-0.08
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	3.4	31.0	14.7	31.4	3.5	40.2	153.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.1%

MIN -3.6%

SAS +5.2%

MIN -20.5%

SAS +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	14.3	114.9	113.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.4		111.7	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.4		111.8	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.8	11.3	15.8	16.1	14.2
MIN	12.3	17.1	14.9	13.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	61	60	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.41	12	-9	21	13.4	15.3	-1.89	14.3	14.7	-0.37
Patty Mills	51	50	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.15	10	-7	17	12.5	15.8	-3.25	13.7	15.3	-1.64
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	-1	5	14.6	13.1	1.50	14.8	13.7	1.14
Rudy Gay	71	71	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	7	-11	15.0	12.1	2.88	14.4	14.8	-0.46
Marco Belinelli	72	71	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	3	-3	13.7	15.4	-1.71	14.4	14.8	-0.41
Dante Cunningham	13	13	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	-5	13	14.2	14.1	0.08	13.7	14.6	-0.93
Derrick White	61	61	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	3	-3	14.6	13.5	1.09	15.4	13.1	2.29
Jakob Poeltl	28	26	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	4	-5	13.1	14.6	-1.50	13.7	14.8	-1.14
Bryn Forbes	53	54	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.28	-5	8	-13	14.8	13.5	1.29	14.6	14.4	0.12
Pau Gasol	22	21	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.01	-9	12	-21	16.1	13.6	2.47	15.0	14.4	0.63

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	68	65	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.35	12	-15	27	13.5	16.6	-3.12	15.0	12.6	2.40
Gorgui Dieng	19	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-3	3	14.2	14.6	-0.36	15.0	14.0	1.05
Jerryd Bayless	27	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	1	-5	13.9	14.7	-0.84	13.9	14.2	-0.32
Andrew Wiggins	75	78	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-4	5	14.4	14.7	-0.29	13.7	15.9	-2.22
Josh Okogie	51	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-2	1	14.8	14.2	0.58	14.9	13.4	1.54
Jeff Teague	61	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-6	9	15.2	13.4	1.87	14.3	14.0	0.30
Anthony Tolliver	40	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	3	-9	15.6	13.7	1.92	13.4	14.6	-1.17
Karl-Anthony Towns	41	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	7	-17	17.0	12.8	4.20	13.7	14.5	-0.85
Derrick Rose	57	58	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	1	-5	13.9	15.3	-1.49	13.6	14.9	-1.30
Dario Saric	61	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	3	-9	13.3	16.4	-3.13	14.3	14.0	0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.21,0.23,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 78, MIN 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.27,0	91.7%
DAL 109, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.11,0.01,0,0	91.4%
POR 112, LAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.44,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.25,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.01,0	91.2%