NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	8.3 [221]		MVP	Tobias Harris (DET): +10.5%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	1.6 [354]		LVP	Andre Drummond (DET): -12.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07,0.07,0.11	0.07	0.01	-0.02	17	58%	0.20	1	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Steve Blake	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	2	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	52%	0.12	1	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	0	100%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Marcus Morris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.01	0.04	11	59%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	17	50%	0.08	6	-0.20	10	80%	0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	10	37%	-0.10	1	-0.02	10	10%	-0.23

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	9	67%	0.20	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	19	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	25	48%	0.03	3	-0.09	8	87%	0.05
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	3	33%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	10	40%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	0.2	28.4	15.6	23.0	2.5	46.4	137.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +67.0%

CHI -16.0%

DET +3.1%

CHI -3.8%

CHI -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	14.5	15.9	14.9	97.9	95.7	105.1
season	15.0	14.8		104.9	103.7
opponent	14.9	15.1		105.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.2	14.7	15.9	12.4	14.5
CHI	16.1	14.7	17.6	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	0	4	13.9	17.2	-3.32	16.2	14.3	1.89
Aron Baynes	43	41	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-2	8	14.3	14.6	-0.28	14.0	17.3	-3.28
Tobias Harris	78	77	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.42	-2	6	-8	13.5	18.6	-5.09	16.1	14.8	1.33
Reggie Jackson	70	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	8	-12	14.1	15.4	-1.29	16.1	15.1	1.02
Stanley Johnson	32	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-3	10	16.3	13.5	2.80	15.9	15.8	0.02
Marcus Morris	80	79	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	7	-10	14.3	15.4	-1.15	15.5	17.5	-1.92
Steve Blake	26	26	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-4	12	15.4	14.1	1.29	15.1	16.1	-1.02
Anthony Tolliver	18	17	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	-2	8	18.6	13.5	5.09	14.8	16.1	-1.33
Andre Drummond	53	53	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.17	-2	6	-8	14.6	14.3	0.28	17.3	14.0	3.28

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	58	56	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.29	14	-18	32	15.5	16.4	-0.87	13.9	15.3	-1.49
Bobby Portis	27	26	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-8	12	16.2	15.7	0.47	15.0	14.3	0.77
E'Twaun Moore	61	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-5	6	16.4	14.9	1.50	14.6	14.2	0.36
Cristiano Felicio	28	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	3	-10	14.9	16.2	-1.31	16.0	13.9	2.10
Doug McDermott	32	33	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	0	-4	14.1	16.7	-2.62	14.6	14.4	0.19
Pau Gasol	66	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-7	10	16.2	14.9	1.31	13.9	16.0	-2.10
Jimmy Butler	75	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-6	8	16.2	14.5	1.73	14.5	14.4	0.04
Nikola Mirotic	43	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	4	-12	15.7	16.0	-0.28	15.5	13.5	2.04
Aaron Brooks	30	31	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	8	-20	16.1	15.7	0.37	15.0	14.2	0.72
Justin Holiday	50	51	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.26	-13	9	-22	16.0	15.7	0.28	13.4	15.7	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.3,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 112, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.16,0	91.5%
CHI 86, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.26,0	91.4%
POR 80, CHA 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.27,0	91.3%