NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	112		Excitement	9.4 [109]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +13.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	110		Comeback	2.3 [342]		LVP	Keith Van Horn (DAL): -14.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.14	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.14	0.08	0.08	0.02	17	67%	0.21	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.04
Michael Finley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13	0.04	0.10	0.01	15	59%	0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.11,0.11	-0.01	0.11	-0.00	12	50%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.02,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.03	21	59%	0.07	0	0.00	7	86%	0.06
Alan Henderson	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Keith Van Horn	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.02	9	79%	0.17	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	15	56%	0.12	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	64%	0.11	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.07,-0.06,0.03,0.07,-0.1	-0.10	0.07	-0.15	0.01	25	55%	-0.10	0	0.00	10	80%	0.06
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	13	38%	-0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	31.3	15.8	29.2	2.5	35.4	142.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.3%

MIL -5.0%

MIL -14.2%

DAL +19.5%

DAL +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIL	NBA	DAL	MIL	NBA
this game	13.8	16.4	15.5	115.5	117.0	104.0
season	14.9	16.0		108.2	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.5		107.4	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.0	13.6	13.8	16.4	13.8
MIL	17.0	15.9	15.6	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	75	69	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.32	12	-10	22	14.0	13.0	1.04	16.7	15.6	1.14
Michael Finley	79	78	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.55	-1	3	-4	14.2	12.3	1.87	16.7	15.1	1.53
Alan Henderson	40	38	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	3	-4	14.3	13.5	0.84	16.4	16.4	-0.04
Marquis Daniels	66	65	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.47	-7	9	-16	14.1	13.2	0.90	15.9	17.4	-1.53
Dirk Nowitzki	78	77	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.40	-5	7	-12	14.1	12.6	1.46	16.5	15.8	0.77
Darrell Armstrong	1	1	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	2	-2	0.0	13.9	-13.95	8.0	16.5	-8.48
Keith Van Horn	36	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.01	6	-4	10	12.8	14.4	-1.63	15.7	16.8	-1.18
Shawn Bradley	50	48	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	-1	4	13.6	14.0	-0.34	17.1	15.7	1.45
Josh Howard	6	5	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	0	2	11.3	14.0	-2.63	23.0	16.0	6.98
Devin Harris	54	53	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	1	0	13.2	14.6	-1.35	15.4	17.7	-2.29

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	25	26	0.26	-0.76	1.01	0.11	5	-7	12	18.0	15.8	2.24	15.6	13.1	2.47
Dan Gadzuric	38	39	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.10	2	-4	6	17.8	15.4	2.43	13.4	14.1	-0.70
Zaza Pachulia	42	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	16.2	16.6	-0.37	14.0	13.6	0.45
Mo Williams	63	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-6	10	16.3	16.6	-0.28	13.9	13.6	0.30
Anthony Goldwire	31	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	4	-10	16.6	16.3	0.28	13.6	13.9	-0.30
Joe Smith	60	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.56	6	-8	14	16.2	16.7	-0.49	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Toni Kukoc	53	54	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.42	-5	3	-8	15.4	17.7	-2.29	14.0	13.6	0.36
Desmond Mason	78	80	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.47	-6	4	-10	15.9	18.9	-3.07	13.1	16.9	-3.73
Michael Redd	80	84	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.47	-8	6	-14	16.6	15.2	1.39	13.9	13.5	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	92.7%
BOS 106, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.05,0	92.1%
DAL 100, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.73,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.46,0.45,0.16,0	92.0%