NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	120		Excitement	11.5 [30]		MVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): +59.4%
Boston Celtics	116		Comeback	10.7 [63]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -43.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0.57	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.57	0.11	0.47	0.01	18	62%	0.68	2	-0.11	9	89%	0.15
Jimmy Butler	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.2	0.06	0.16	0.02	21	56%	0.37	3	-0.17	3	33%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	-0.01	-0.04	13	71%	0.18	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Caleb Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.07	-0.10	0.02	19	68%	0.21	5	-0.26	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gabe Vincent	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59	0.59	0.14	0.46	0.01	23	67%	0.75	5	-0.16	9	89%	0.08
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48	0.48	0.17	0.31	0.00	8	100%	0.50	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.02	8	62%	0.08	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.02	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	14	56%	-0.01	4	-0.09	4	25%	-0.05
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.34,-0.43	-0.43	-0.19	-0.24	0.00	18	33%	-0.25	5	-0.18	6	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	30.5	15.4	26.4	1.8	35.0	2.5	11.5	151.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.0	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +7.5%

MIA +15.9%

MIA +31.1%

BOS -9.8%

MIA +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	13.4	14.4	106.2	104.5	113.4
season	15.1	14.5		111.9	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.6		110.6	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.0	14.7	15.7	14.1	15.9	14.9
BOS	12.7	11.4	14.3	14.7	15.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	82	81	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.72	7	-3	10	15.0	14.8	0.24	13.8	12.5	1.23
Haywood Highsmith	61	57	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.50	12	-8	20	14.2	15.8	-1.63	14.2	12.6	1.67
Gabe Vincent	57	55	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.42	5	-1	6	14.4	15.6	-1.20	13.7	13.2	0.44
Bam Adebayo	79	79	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-3	10	14.9	15.0	-0.08	14.5	10.7	3.77
Kyle Lowry	79	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	-7	18	14.9	15.1	-0.20	13.8	12.5	1.23
Udonis Haslem	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	4	-4	16.8	14.8	1.99	11.7	13.6	-1.92
Dewayne Dedmon	21	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.02	-1	5	-6	14.7	15.0	-0.34	10.3	14.1	-3.82
Max Strus	46	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	2	0	14.4	15.3	-0.86	13.1	13.6	-0.50
Jimmy Butler	74	72	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.24	-10	14	-24	15.9	13.1	2.78	12.8	14.5	-1.71
Caleb Martin	57	56	-0.71	1.21	-1.92	-0.33	-13	17	-30	15.4	14.5	0.82	12.3	14.6	-2.28

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	63	63	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-13	22	13.6	13.3	0.28	15.3	14.5	0.73
Derrick White	59	60	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.03	7	-11	18	13.5	13.4	0.09	15.2	14.7	0.50
Grant Williams	57	59	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.13	-3	-1	-2	12.5	14.4	-1.97	15.1	14.8	0.22
Marcus Smart	87	89	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.27	10	-14	24	12.6	16.6	-4.02	15.7	12.1	3.64
Jaylen Brown	95	96	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.37	7	-11	18	13.1	15.1	-1.98	15.4	12.1	3.33
Luke Kornet	22	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	6	-16	13.7	13.4	0.31	13.7	15.3	-1.57
Jayson Tatum	85	88	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-5	6	13.6	12.7	0.92	15.3	13.8	1.42
Sam Hauser	46	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.08	-10	6	-16	14.9	12.4	2.53	13.6	15.9	-2.22
Malcolm Brogdon	47	46	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.13	-20	16	-36	14.2	12.9	1.35	12.8	16.4	-3.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.47,0.26,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, WAS 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.63,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.33,0.17,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.57,0	88.9%
MIA 93, WAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.88,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.14,0.29,0.55,0.41,0	87.7%
DEN 123, GSW 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.15,0.22,0.08,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.33,0.42,0	87.1%