NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	12.5 [6]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +79.7%
Golden State Warriors	118		Comeback	3.8 [498]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -53.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.80	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.51,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.8	0.24	0.56	0.00	19	76%	0.85	2	-0.06	11	82%	0.06
J.R. Smith	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.32	-0.00	0.32	-0.01	15	47%	0.37	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12	-0.04	0.16	-0.00	10	46%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	7	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.07	-0.00	5	38%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.04	-0.08	0.03	8	68%	0.11	4	-0.18	12	58%	-0.08
Carmelo Anthony	-0.53	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.25,-0.34,-0.34,-0.41,-0.43,-0.53	-0.12	-0.42	-0.00	22	42%	-0.34	5	-0.19	11	82%	-0.06

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.12,0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.54	0.54	0.09	0.45	-0.00	28	54%	0.69	3	-0.14	16	75%	-0.05
Corey Maggette	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.12	0.01	18	69%	0.38	5	-0.17	12	100%	0.12
Stephen Curry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.06	0.19	-0.01	17	44%	0.21	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.01	7	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.01	10	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	6	29%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	31.2	2.5	30.2	15.8	29.1	2.5	37.0	1.7	19.0	169.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.8%

GSW -12.8%

DEN +41.4%

GSW -11.4%

DEN +5.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	GSW	NBA	DEN	GSW	NBA
this game	14.9	14.5	15.3	113.9	109.3	106.0
season	14.4	13.4		110.3	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.5		110.0	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	12.9	15.4	15.6	16.6	14.0	14.9
GSW	13.3	15.3	13.8	16.1	14.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	86	87	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.39	9	-4	13	14.7	15.5	-0.81	13.9	17.2	-3.28
Carmelo Anthony	95	95	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.38	8	-3	11	15.1	13.5	1.55	14.3	16.1	-1.74
J.R. Smith	65	66	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-2	9	15.3	14.3	1.07	15.3	13.4	1.83
Chauncey Billups	79	81	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	0	5	15.0	14.6	0.47	13.7	17.0	-3.27
Ty Lawson	32	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	4	-3	13.9	15.3	-1.45	17.6	13.4	4.27
Chris Andersen	38	37	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	4	-3	14.6	15.1	-0.45	16.8	13.4	3.40
Malik Allen	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	5	-5	16.7	14.7	1.99	15.3	14.5	0.83
Arron Afflalo	53	52	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	11	-17	14.5	15.3	-0.84	13.5	15.5	-1.98
Nene	71	72	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.04	-5	10	-15	15.1	14.4	0.71	14.1	15.5	-1.47

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Tolliver	33	32	0.56	-1.06	1.62	0.27	10	-15	25	15.0	14.3	0.70	13.5	15.5	-2.03
Andris Biedrins	59	61	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.15	4	-9	13	14.7	14.3	0.36	15.9	13.6	2.38
Cartier Martin	31	32	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.5	0.27	14.3	15.1	-0.79
Stephen Curry	100	100	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-3	1	14.4	16.4	-1.97	14.9	15.2	-0.38
Monta Ellis	108	108	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.5	0.0	14.55	14.9	0.0	14.90
Corey Maggette	82	82	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	7	-19	14.5	14.8	-0.34	15.0	14.5	0.47
Chris Hunter	48	45	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	2	-9	14.3	14.7	-0.46	14.0	15.5	-1.46
Devean George	79	80	-1.02	0.52	-1.53	-0.67	-12	7	-19	14.6	14.5	0.09	15.3	13.7	1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.15,0.22,0.08,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 97, IND 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.7,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.59,0.4,0.55,0.45,0.15,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.42,0	89.7%
NJN 84, CHI 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.53,0.39,0.28,0.22,0.17,0	88.9%
NJN 105, PHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.53,0.25,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.58,0	88.6%