NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	119		Excitement	6.8 [564]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +27.8%
Boston Celtics	123		Comeback	2.1 [947]		LVP	Patrick Williams (CHI): -23.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.28	0.25	0.07	0.05	23	68%	0.35	2	-0.07	22	91%	0.12
Nikola Vucevic	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.24,0.24	0.19	0.07	0.02	14	86%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.04	8	69%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zach LaVine	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	13	55%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	9	28%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Williams	-0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23	-0.10	-0.13	0.00	9	39%	-0.09	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.04	0.01	10	86%	0.29	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	6	58%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12	0.12	0.13	0.02	0.02	23	55%	0.18	1	-0.05	20	85%	0.05
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	14	48%	0.04	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.6	29.3	15.5	31.8	2.8	41.3	150.6
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +9.4%

BOS +11.4%

BOS +14.4%

BOS +16.7%

CHI -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	12.5	14.9	14.4	114.4	116.0	113.4
season	14.1	14.5		112.0	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.9		110.6	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.6	15.5	11.1	10.7	12.5
BOS	15.2	14.6	14.1	15.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Javonte Green	33	36	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-7	10	12.6	12.5	0.08	15.0	14.8	0.26
DeMar DeRozan	79	80	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-14	24	12.4	13.0	-0.59	14.4	16.1	-1.67
Nikola Vucevic	78	78	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.43	10	-14	24	12.4	12.9	-0.45	14.3	16.4	-2.04
Ayo Dosunmu	64	64	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-9	14	12.5	12.6	-0.08	14.8	14.9	-0.08
Goran Dragic	44	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	2	-8	12.2	12.8	-0.67	14.6	15.1	-0.49
Patrick Williams	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-2	0	12.6	12.4	0.22	15.6	13.6	2.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	30	31	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	0.06	-15	11	-26	13.2	12.3	0.87	16.3	14.3	1.98
Alex Caruso	47	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.03	-14	10	-24	13.2	12.0	1.17	14.4	15.2	-0.83
Zach LaVine	80	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.28	-11	7	-18	12.3	13.2	-0.91	15.0	14.4	0.60

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	88	87	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-7	18	15.1	13.6	1.57	12.5	12.7	-0.19
Sam Hauser	39	38	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.06	19	-15	34	15.2	14.7	0.51	13.2	12.2	1.00
Luke Kornet	33	30	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	-13	30	15.2	14.7	0.43	13.2	12.3	0.96
Grant Williams	44	43	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-11	26	15.0	14.8	0.16	12.7	12.4	0.33
Malcolm Brogdon	63	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	0	4	15.0	14.7	0.27	12.2	13.1	-0.86
Jaylen Brown	77	75	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.48	-13	17	-30	14.3	16.3	-2.05	12.3	13.1	-0.82
Al Horford	73	72	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.40	-13	17	-30	14.7	15.2	-0.43	12.5	12.6	-0.07
Derrick White	58	57	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.31	-10	14	-24	15.5	14.1	1.38	12.3	12.9	-0.59
Marcus Smart	56	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.28	-10	14	-24	13.9	15.9	-2.01	12.4	12.7	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, GSW 136	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
GSW 94, UTA 102	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
NOH 90, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%