NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	94		Excitement	5.5 [689]		MVP	Calbert Cheaney (UTA): +14.0%
Utah Jazz	102		Comeback	1.7 [933]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): -17.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	11	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	63%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Earl Boykins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Bob Sura	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	13	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Mike Dunleavy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	17	44%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.04	0.02	16	37%	-0.14	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.04	0.01	10	45%	-0.04	6	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	10	70%	0.14	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	64%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Karl Malone	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	17	62%	0.11	4	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.5	26.5	15.4	23.4	2.6	26.4	122.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +67.2%

GSW -13.9%

GSW -0.5%

GSW -6.4%

UTA +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	UTA	NBA	GSW	UTA	NBA
this game	14.0	16.6	15.5	100.0	108.5	101.6
season	14.6	16.3		105.3	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.1		101.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.1	16.9	13.6	14.1	14.0
UTA	13.6	15.1	17.7	21.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	17	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-6	4	12.9	14.3	-1.33	16.3	16.7	-0.34
Earl Boykins	29	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-7	6	16.1	13.1	3.05	17.0	16.4	0.64
Erick Dampier	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-5	2	13.1	15.0	-1.81	15.3	18.0	-2.69
Adonal Foyle	39	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-3	-2	15.3	13.1	2.14	17.6	15.9	1.68
Troy Murphy	79	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-7	6	13.8	15.3	-1.55	16.2	18.9	-2.73
Bob Sura	52	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-7	6	14.6	13.3	1.35	18.5	14.3	4.20
Antawn Jamison	66	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-8	0	-8	13.8	14.5	-0.62	15.7	18.6	-2.98
Jason Richardson	69	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-3	-2	13.5	15.4	-1.86	16.7	16.5	0.20
Gilbert Arenas	71	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	6	-20	13.8	14.7	-0.82	16.7	16.3	0.44

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	80	80	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	0	8	16.4	18.0	-1.64	13.2	18.9	-5.75
Matt Harpring	67	65	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-4	16	15.4	19.5	-4.09	13.8	14.5	-0.70
Scott Padgett	38	37	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	2	4	16.9	16.4	0.53	15.5	13.1	2.35
John Stockton	63	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.22	2	6	-4	16.2	17.4	-1.12	13.2	15.8	-2.60
DeShawn Stevenson	21	21	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.00	9	-1	10	15.1	17.0	-1.88	16.0	13.5	2.60
Andrei Kirilenko	48	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	8	-8	18.3	14.8	3.53	14.4	13.7	0.74
Calbert Cheaney	52	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.23	0	8	-8	17.1	16.0	1.18	13.6	14.6	-0.94
Mark Jackson	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.04	6	2	4	17.4	16.2	1.12	15.8	13.2	2.60
Greg Ostertag	41	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	10	-12	15.6	17.4	-1.72	12.8	15.1	-2.30
Tony Massenburg	29	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.05	-1	9	-10	18.2	15.9	2.31	15.5	13.3	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.94,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 99, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.68,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,1	94.2%
PHI 90, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	93.9%
NJN 93, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.7,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.79,0.66,0.63,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	93.7%