NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	6.4 [552]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +16.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	1.9 [790]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (DEN): -25.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.01	10	78%	0.19	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Mike Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	15	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
JaKarr Sampson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Axel Toupane	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	31%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	23	52%	0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.21	-0.05	-0.01	13	37%	-0.06	8	-0.20	4	25%	-0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	9	74%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.00	0.00	7	76%	0.15	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.07	0.03	17	58%	0.15	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	17	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Montero	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	67%	0.07	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	27.2	15.3	24.3	2.5	29.4	126.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +34.6%

POR +7.1%

DEN -5.4%

POR +12.2%

POR +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	13.5	15.0	14.9	98.0	105.9	105.1
season	14.9	15.0		104.3	107.1
opponent	14.6	14.9		106.7	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	13.4	13.6	14.0	13.5
POR	11.6	14.3	16.4	18.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaKarr Sampson	19	20	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-9	10	13.5	13.5	0.01	13.2	15.4	-2.24
Kenneth Faried	41	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-7	6	13.3	13.6	-0.29	14.8	15.1	-0.29
Nikola Jokic	75	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-12	16	13.2	14.5	-1.33	14.7	15.8	-1.12
Will Barton	51	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-11	14	13.3	13.8	-0.53	16.3	13.5	2.82
Emmanuel Mudiay	78	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.20	-1	-7	6	13.2	14.4	-1.19	14.8	15.5	-0.68
Axel Toupane	13	11	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.13	-13	5	-18	13.8	13.5	0.38	16.7	14.8	1.94
Gary Harris	76	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-11	14	13.4	13.8	-0.43	15.5	13.4	2.13
Mike Miller	42	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	1	-10	13.4	13.6	-0.27	13.5	16.0	-2.50
D.J. Augustin	29	28	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	1	-10	15.2	12.8	2.42	15.2	14.9	0.30
Jusuf Nurkic	81	80	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.14	-18	10	-28	13.9	12.1	1.70	15.0	14.9	0.12

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Noah Vonleh	50	50	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.20	10	-2	12	16.1	13.9	2.14	14.2	12.8	1.36
Pat Connaughton	57	57	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	1	6	16.7	12.8	3.91	13.6	13.4	0.19
CJ McCollum	56	56	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-1	10	14.3	15.9	-1.60	14.4	12.4	2.05
Allen Crabbe	54	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.14	15	-7	22	14.1	16.0	-1.83	13.3	13.8	-0.55
Ed Davis	48	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	7	-6	16.4	13.7	2.70	13.9	13.2	0.69
Mason Plumlee	53	53	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	1	6	13.7	16.4	-2.70	13.2	13.9	-0.69
Brian Roberts	34	33	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	7	-6	16.3	14.4	1.91	13.5	13.5	-0.09
Maurice Harkless	40	42	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	6	-4	13.7	15.8	-2.07	12.8	14.0	-1.17
Al-Farouq Aminu	42	41	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	10	-12	13.9	15.8	-1.92	13.8	13.3	0.41
Damian Lillard	55	56	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	8	-8	13.2	17.2	-3.99	12.6	14.7	-2.16
Luis Montero	16	15	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.30	-10	18	-28	20.6	14.0	6.61	13.4	13.5	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.68,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 100, OKC 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
DEN 95, DAL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.83,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
SAS 86, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%