NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	5.3 [772]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DAL): +11.3%
Dallas Mavericks	115		Comeback	1.7 [1133]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -4.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	-0.02	23	63%	0.20	7	-0.15	8	75%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	23%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	6	44%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Allen Iverson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.04	-0.06	18	58%	0.17	9	-0.21	9	89%	0.03
Nene	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.03	11	62%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.02	-0.04	22	57%	0.15	4	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.03	5	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	1	75%	0.06	3	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Ager	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.04	22	57%	0.05	4	-0.06	10	100%	0.05
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	8	62%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	39%	-0.02	2	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	30.9	16.7	30.3	1.8	32.4	139.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +14.8%

DEN -2.3%

DAL +14.3%

DAL +18.0%

DAL +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	12.6	14.4	15.4	88.0	108.5	104.5
season	14.0	16.3		105.8	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	13.2	12.6	11.3	12.6
DAL	14.6	15.6	14.0	13.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DerMarr Johnson	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-17	14	13.0	12.5	0.45	14.5	14.4	0.12
Eduardo Najera	59	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	-10	0	12.1	13.1	-0.96	14.4	14.4	-0.04
Yakhouba Diawara	46	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.09	-11	-9	-2	13.9	11.5	2.40	14.4	14.4	-0.02
Steve Blake	57	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	-9	-2	11.8	13.4	-1.51	14.9	13.8	1.17
Linas Kleiza	50	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.17	-15	-5	-10	11.5	13.5	-2.04	13.8	14.9	-1.14
Marcus Camby	81	79	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	-11	2	12.7	12.1	0.59	14.7	13.4	1.35
Carmelo Anthony	94	92	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-12	4	12.3	14.0	-1.66	14.3	14.6	-0.31
Allen Iverson	100	97	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	-7	-6	12.6	11.9	0.74	14.3	15.1	-0.80
Nene	51	53	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.12	-20	0	-20	13.7	11.5	2.22	14.1	14.7	-0.60

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	67	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	5	10	14.1	14.9	-0.78	12.3	13.1	-0.77
Jerry Stackhouse	56	58	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.03	12	8	4	14.4	14.4	-0.04	12.2	13.0	-0.79
Greg Buckner	49	49	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	4	12	14.0	14.7	-0.74	13.7	11.6	2.05
Erick Dampier	74	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.05	11	9	2	14.8	13.3	1.48	12.4	12.8	-0.42
DeSagana Diop	34	37	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.11	13	7	6	13.4	14.8	-1.42	13.2	12.2	0.96
Austin Croshere	32	34	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.25	17	3	14	13.0	15.0	-1.97	11.6	13.0	-1.45
Dirk Nowitzki	74	75	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	17	-14	15.0	13.0	1.97	12.8	11.9	0.93
Josh Howard	85	88	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	15	-10	14.7	13.0	1.72	12.6	12.4	0.13
Jason Terry	55	53	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	20	-20	14.6	14.2	0.39	12.2	12.9	-0.72
Maurice Ager	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	16	-12	14.5	14.4	0.12	13.0	12.5	0.45
Jose Juan Barea	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	16	-12	14.5	14.4	0.12	13.0	12.5	0.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.83,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 98, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.77,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.3%
PHX 88, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.6,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
CLE 84, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%