NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	90		Excitement	4.9 [878]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +10.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	2.2 [1038]		LVP	Carl Landry (NOH): -17.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.02	-0.00	17	63%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	0.00	0.07	14	70%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Willie Green	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.08	4	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Patrick Ewing Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.01
Jarrett Jack	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Carl Landry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.08	0.02	7	44%	-0.07	3	-0.11	4	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	6	93%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	11	62%	0.14	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	61%	0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.03	12	55%	0.06	3	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	150%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.01	0.06	13	63%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	12	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.7	28.3	19.5	29.2	2.8	35.2	146.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +7.7%

LAL +10.4%

LAL +19.6%

LAL +15.6%

NOH -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	LAL	NBA	NOH	LAL	NBA
this game	15.4	16.6	15.5	98.9	119.1	105.7
season	16.2	15.9		104.6	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.9		103.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	13.2	15.7	16.1	16.6	15.4
LAL	16.1	15.6	19.1	16.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Ewing Jr.	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-16	16	9.0	15.6	-6.59	19.0	16.6	2.41
Quincy Pondexter	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-16	16	9.0	15.6	-6.59	19.0	16.6	2.41
Willie Green	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-15	14	13.0	16.6	-3.60	17.7	16.1	1.59
Aaron Gray	30	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.03	-2	-14	12	13.9	16.1	-2.20	14.9	17.4	-2.50
Emeka Okafor	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.08	-7	-9	2	15.7	14.5	1.14	17.4	14.2	3.21
Carl Landry	66	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-9	2	15.8	14.4	1.40	17.2	15.0	2.19
Chris Paul	77	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-9	2	15.4	15.1	0.27	16.4	17.8	-1.41
Jason Smith	16	16	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.12	-15	-1	-14	16.6	15.1	1.52	13.6	17.3	-3.68
Trevor Ariza	60	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	-3	-10	15.4	15.4	0.03	17.5	14.9	2.54
Marco Belinelli	74	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	-2	-12	15.9	12.9	2.99	16.4	17.4	-1.01
Jarrett Jack	27	26	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	-2	-12	17.1	14.7	2.42	14.5	17.5	-2.97

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	70	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	4	8	16.8	15.9	0.95	15.2	15.9	-0.73
Matt Barnes	28	29	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.01	14	2	12	15.0	17.4	-2.34	16.7	14.8	1.88
Steve Blake	27	29	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.06	14	2	12	14.9	17.4	-2.57	16.1	15.0	1.12
Andrew Bynum	54	54	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	9	-2	16.9	16.2	0.68	15.6	15.1	0.45
Lamar Odom	54	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	3	10	16.1	17.5	-1.35	15.7	14.9	0.71
Kobe Bryant	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	7	2	17.5	15.4	2.07	15.7	14.9	0.74
Shannon Brown	37	39	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.01	7	9	-2	15.4	17.5	-2.07	14.9	15.7	-0.74
Derek Fisher	62	63	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.11	2	14	-12	17.4	14.9	2.57	14.8	16.7	-1.88
Metta World Peace	61	62	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	14	-12	17.4	15.0	2.34	14.8	16.7	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIN 100, OKC 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
SAS 86, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%