NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	8.5 [251]		MVP	Gabe Vincent (MIA): +24.9%
Indiana Pacers	101		Comeback	1.8 [461]		LVP	Andrew Nembhard (IND): -17.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gabe Vincent	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.10	0.15	-0.00	10	75%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Haywood Highsmith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Tyler Herro	-0.07	0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07	0.05	-0.12	0.01	20	59%	0.05	5	-0.12	9	100%	0.10
Caleb Martin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,-0.03,-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	13	61%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13	-0.02	-0.11	0.01	14	56%	0.10	5	-0.23	4	100%	0.04
Duncan Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	7	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrese Haliburton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	16	61%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.06
Bennedict Mathurin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.01	11	68%	0.21	3	-0.10	12	83%	-0.01
Myles Turner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	76%	0.16	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Buddy Hield	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.05	-0.00	18	69%	0.21	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Oshae Brissett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	2	17%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duarte	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.03,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.3	29.5	15.3	26.3	1.8	37.2	141.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +66.9%

MIA -33.1%

IND +1.9%

IND +2.3%

IND +12.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	14.8	13.3	14.4	96.1	99.0	113.4
season	15.1	13.7		111.9	113.3
opponent	14.4	14.6		116.4	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	14.6	15.2	15.3	14.8
IND	11.4	12.6	13.0	16.7	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caleb Martin	62	60	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.14	8	-10	18	15.1	14.4	0.64	12.7	14.0	-1.25
Dewayne Dedmon	31	30	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	3	-8	14.5	15.0	-0.53	12.4	13.6	-1.23
Haywood Highsmith	14	13	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	3	-8	15.0	14.8	0.20	13.6	13.2	0.40
Gabe Vincent	53	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.36	1	-3	4	14.2	15.5	-1.27	14.0	12.4	1.64
Max Strus	82	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.49	5	-7	12	14.9	14.6	0.32	13.9	10.6	3.25
Duncan Robinson	38	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	11	-24	13.8	15.4	-1.56	12.7	13.6	-0.88
Bam Adebayo	72	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-5	8	15.0	14.5	0.53	13.6	12.4	1.23
Tyler Herro	81	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.0	10.6	5.38	12.8	15.0	-2.27
Kyle Lowry	82	81	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.61	-2	0	-2	14.3	17.0	-2.79	13.2	13.6	-0.45

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Nembhard	58	58	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.33	13	-11	24	13.7	12.6	1.11	15.0	14.6	0.48
Buddy Hield	85	86	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-3	8	12.7	16.0	-3.28	15.3	12.2	3.17
Bennedict Mathurin	77	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-2	6	13.7	12.0	1.68	14.6	15.6	-1.04
T.J. McConnell	49	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-10	22	12.8	13.7	-0.94	14.2	15.5	-1.28
Myles Turner	67	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.44	-4	6	-10	12.9	14.1	-1.21	15.4	13.7	1.68
Oshae Brissett	24	24	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.10	6	-4	10	15.2	12.7	2.54	14.0	15.1	-1.13
Isaiah Jackson	35	35	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.04	5	-3	8	14.1	12.9	1.21	13.7	15.4	-1.68
Tyrese Haliburton	78	76	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.33	-12	14	-26	13.3	13.3	-0.04	15.2	13.7	1.47
Chris Duarte	11	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.07	-5	7	-12	11.6	13.5	-1.83	14.5	14.9	-0.31
Jalen Smith	26	26	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.12	-14	16	-30	12.6	13.5	-0.87	14.4	15.0	-0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.69,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.81,0.69,0.7,0.46,0.45,0.77,0.78,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 79, ATL 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.92,1	91.4%
NOP 82, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.77,0.83,0.65,0.6,0.8,0.85,0.77,0.91,1	91.1%
IND 98, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.78,0.98,1	91.0%