NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	79		Excitement	6.8 [441]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +40.2%
Atlanta Hawks	81		Comeback	1.8 [361]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): -12.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.2,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	20	57%	0.24	4	-0.24	7	86%	0.01
David Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Steven Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Malik Rose	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	9	50%	0.05	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.4	0.40	0.01	0.40	0.01	14	54%	0.47	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.07	0.01	24	52%	0.13	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	18	47%	0.11	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.7	30.5	15.0	23.2	2.7	31.6	126.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +35.8%

SAS -3.1%

SAS -4.6%

ATL +17.1%

ATL +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.8	17.3	15.5	94.0	95.3	101.6
season	15.7	15.1		102.5	99.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.4	14.9	16.3	18.7	16.8
ATL	15.4	15.1	20.5	19.2	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	23	24	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.06	9	-11	20	16.8	16.8	0.01	19.0	16.6	2.42
Kevin Willis	9	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-4	6	14.6	17.0	-2.48	16.4	17.4	-1.08
Bruce Bowen	58	59	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-12	22	16.1	18.4	-2.33	17.2	17.5	-0.34
Steven Smith	41	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-1	0	17.2	16.4	0.78	18.0	16.6	1.45
Tim Duncan	75	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.54	11	-13	24	16.5	19.4	-2.99	17.6	14.9	2.68
David Robinson	57	58	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	8	-18	17.5	15.3	2.12	16.4	19.2	-2.81
Tony Parker	63	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	5	-12	16.7	16.9	-0.11	16.7	19.1	-2.44
Malik Rose	27	24	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	5	-12	17.0	16.7	0.28	19.1	16.6	2.48
Stephen Jackson	67	65	-0.99	0.49	-1.48	-0.49	-17	15	-32	17.2	15.2	2.00	16.9	18.7	-1.82

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	72	72	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-5	12	17.5	16.4	1.09	16.9	16.2	0.71
Theo Ratliff	51	53	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.44	1	1	0	16.1	19.1	-2.92	17.3	15.9	1.43
Jason Terry	73	72	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.46	-4	6	-10	16.1	24.7	-8.57	16.8	16.5	0.32
Mike Wilks	59	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-10	22	17.8	16.1	1.77	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Ira Newble	38	39	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.43	-4	6	-10	18.8	16.1	2.68	16.8	16.7	0.14
Glenn Robinson	75	73	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	7	-12	16.2	25.7	-9.51	16.7	17.4	-0.68
Darvin Ham	15	17	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	-5	12	23.6	16.0	7.64	17.8	16.5	1.32
Alan Henderson	35	32	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	1	0	18.9	16.2	2.78	15.7	17.5	-1.81
Nazr Mohammed	7	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	7	-12	14.4	17.6	-3.14	14.6	16.9	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.68,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 92, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.3%
MIA 80, NYK 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.86,0.85,1	93.1%
SAS 103, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.92,1,1,1	93.1%