NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	7.4 [322]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +9.8%
New York Knicks	83		Comeback	1.2 [399]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -38.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	0.00	6	79%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Keith Askins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	5	90%	0.15	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.00	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.07	2	-0.07	13	62%	-0.04
Marty Conlon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.38	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.34,-0.28,-0.38	-0.17	-0.20	0.00	22	33%	-0.29	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	13	54%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Herb Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	10	24%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.11	0.00	8	62%	-0.00	1	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,-0.08,-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	21	56%	-0.01	3	-0.10	10	60%	-0.05
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	6	50%	-0.03	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	10	32%	-0.05	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	32.7	17.7	29.2	2.4	36.5	144.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -6.8%

NYK +14.6%

NYK +28.3%

NYK +5.2%

NYK +8.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.6	16.2	15.6	88.9	91.2	102.5
season	15.8	15.7		104.7	100.4
opponent	16.3	16.2		98.6	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	15.1	14.4	17.6	15.6
NYK	13.8	14.9	17.6	19.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	34	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	0	-3	15.9	15.4	0.47	15.1	16.8	-1.72
Keith Askins	43	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-6	9	16.4	14.9	1.57	16.4	16.0	0.31
Marty Conlon	6	5	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	15.5	15.6	-0.13	12.2	16.4	-4.23
Eric Murdock	34	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-2	1	16.7	14.9	1.79	16.0	16.3	-0.36
Alonzo Mourning	82	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-8	13	15.8	13.7	2.05	16.3	14.9	1.45
P.J. Brown	52	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	0	-3	14.9	16.6	-1.61	17.2	14.7	2.47
Tim Hardaway	86	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.43	0	-3	3	15.6	17.0	-1.44	16.3	13.3	2.96
Voshon Lenard	57	57	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	0	-3	15.3	16.1	-0.79	16.4	15.9	0.41
Dan Majerle	56	57	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	5	-13	14.9	16.8	-1.88	15.7	17.0	-1.23

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	74	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.39	8	-5	13	16.2	16.3	-0.12	15.8	14.6	1.21
Chris Childs	49	50	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-1	5	16.5	15.8	0.72	16.2	14.8	1.39
Larry Johnson	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	-3	9	15.4	17.8	-2.39	16.6	13.7	2.90
Allan Houston	80	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	2	-1	16.1	16.7	-0.60	15.7	14.8	0.93
Chris Mills	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	2	-1	16.5	15.6	0.86	15.2	16.6	-1.34
John Starks	47	45	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	-1	5	16.3	16.0	0.29	15.6	15.6	0.00
Herb Williams	3	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.03	-1	4	-5	14.0	16.3	-2.27	13.0	15.7	-2.74
Charlie Ward	42	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	3	-3	15.8	16.5	-0.72	14.8	16.2	-1.39
Terry Cummings	35	32	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	11	-19	17.3	15.5	1.81	14.2	16.4	-2.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.86,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.71,0.71,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.62,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	93.6%
MEM 99, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.8,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.84,0.68,0.85,1	93.3%
BKN 101, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,0.91,1	93.2%