NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	107		Excitement	9.3 [142]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +63.7%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	5.3 [388]		LVP	Keegan Murray (SAC): -7.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.35	0.07	0.26	-0.01	15	59%	0.41	2	-0.06	7	71%	0.14
Kevin Huerter	0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.10	0.02	17	65%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Davion Mitchell	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.13	-0.00	0.14	0.01	9	50%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terence Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	3	40%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Harrison Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.03	12	46%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Malik Monk	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.09,0	0.08	-0.08	-0.00	13	70%	0.21	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keegan Murray	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.64	0.64	0.09	0.54	-0.00	21	62%	0.69	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	0.00	7	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.02	0.17	0.03	12	37%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.07	0.02	14	67%	0.24	3	-0.11	5	80%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.06	0.02	16	59%	0.16	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	6	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.7	26.5	15.3	24.5	1.7	38.8	132.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.2%

SAC -27.8%

MIA +3.1%

MIA +14.7%

MIA +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.9	14.4	109.2	113.4	113.4
season	13.5	15.1		117.3	111.9
opponent	14.6	14.8		112.1	115.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.4	15.0	14.6	14.4	14.6
MIA	13.9	15.7	16.0	14.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keegan Murray	59	56	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.09	7	-10	17	13.8	15.8	-2.08	15.2	14.6	0.59
Richaun Holmes	22	20	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-5	7	14.0	14.8	-0.76	15.7	14.7	1.01
Trey Lyles	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	1	-5	14.5	14.6	-0.18	14.5	15.1	-0.61
Malik Monk	43	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-4	5	14.6	14.6	0.02	15.9	14.2	1.73
Kevin Huerter	76	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-2	1	15.2	12.5	2.70	15.1	14.4	0.76
Terence Davis	17	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.15	-2	-1	-1	13.3	14.9	-1.57	13.6	15.3	-1.71
Matthew Dellavedova	42	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-4	5	13.3	15.6	-2.24	14.7	15.1	-0.41
Harrison Barnes	69	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.45	-3	0	-3	15.2	13.2	1.92	15.0	14.9	0.08
Domantas Sabonis	76	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.45	-5	2	-7	14.8	14.0	0.76	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Davion Mitchell	60	58	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.53	-11	8	-19	15.3	13.5	1.83	14.6	15.5	-0.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	75	77	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.47	15	-12	27	14.7	15.9	-1.24	14.9	13.5	1.42
Gabe Vincent	59	60	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.39	8	-5	13	14.3	16.0	-1.69	14.5	14.8	-0.28
Bam Adebayo	65	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.49	2	1	1	14.6	15.7	-1.10	15.2	13.3	1.90
Max Strus	67	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.49	-1	4	-5	14.8	15.3	-0.56	15.3	13.1	2.14
Kyle Lowry	77	76	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.47	-7	10	-17	15.2	14.0	1.19	14.8	13.9	0.88
Caleb Martin	59	61	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	-2	7	15.1	14.8	0.26	14.5	14.7	-0.13
Dewayne Dedmon	32	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	2	-1	15.7	14.6	1.10	13.3	15.2	-1.90
Duncan Robinson	51	51	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.14	-8	11	-19	15.9	13.9	1.93	13.1	16.2	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.39,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.68,0.48,0.33,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.33,0.45,0.36,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.72,1	92.4%
MIA 96, MIL 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.55,0.67,0.85,1	91.4%
DAL 79, SAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.73,1	91.2%