NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	121		Excitement	9.8 [75]		MVP	Bobby Portis (MIL): +34.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	127		Comeback	3.6 [601]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -24.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.33	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.39,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.20	0.15	0.02	16	85%	0.47	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Theis	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.02	12	76%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Sam Hauser	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	110%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.01	10	60%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.05	0.00	13	66%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Luke Kornet	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Grant Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.25	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25	-0.05	-0.19	-0.00	20	47%	-0.06	4	-0.19	7	57%	-0.07

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.14	0.21	0.01	11	77%	0.34	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	19	63%	0.29	3	-0.16	8	62%	-0.03
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jevon Carter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	16	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	21	56%	0.09	4	-0.11	10	70%	-0.06
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.06	0.00	18	59%	0.09	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.3	28.8	15.6	30.4	2.8	39.2	145.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +1.5%

MIL +2.3%

MIL +28.3%

MIL +12.2%

MIL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIL	NBA	BOS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	13.3	14.5	117.5	122.1	110.8
season	14.9	13.7		112.2	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.7		109.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.2	15.0	13.4	18.3	14.5
MIL	11.8	13.8	14.3	13.8	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Payton Pritchard	39	41	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.17	2	-8	10	16.4	13.3	3.09	13.1	13.5	-0.40
Sam Hauser	40	41	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.07	0	-6	6	14.1	14.8	-0.68	13.1	13.4	-0.28
Luke Kornet	32	33	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.05	-1	-5	4	16.8	13.5	3.38	13.7	13.1	0.60
Aaron Nesmith	26	25	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.10	-13	7	-20	15.1	14.3	0.75	12.8	13.5	-0.73
Jaylen Brown	80	82	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-9	12	14.4	15.0	-0.68	13.4	13.0	0.40
Daniel Theis	71	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	-1	-4	13.5	16.8	-3.38	13.1	13.7	-0.60
Marcus Smart	68	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.33	-7	1	-8	13.6	16.2	-2.55	13.2	13.5	-0.30
Grant Williams	79	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.62	2	-8	10	14.2	15.6	-1.39	13.3	13.3	0.05
Derrick White	80	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.30	-11	5	-16	14.8	13.5	1.33	13.7	12.0	1.69

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Portis	58	57	1.21	-0.71	1.92	0.39	28	-22	50	12.9	13.8	-0.91	15.7	13.0	2.74
Jrue Holiday	83	84	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.42	10	-4	14	13.3	13.5	-0.26	15.0	12.4	2.57
Wesley Matthews	60	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	0	6	12.7	14.1	-1.38	14.0	15.2	-1.14
Khris Middleton	86	83	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-4	14	13.3	13.4	-0.15	14.7	13.7	0.95
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81	82	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	7	-8	13.3	13.4	-0.15	14.3	15.5	-1.27
George Hill	33	31	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	1	4	12.4	13.7	-1.31	13.4	15.0	-1.66
Brook Lopez	54	53	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.02	-8	14	-22	13.4	13.2	0.26	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Pat Connaughton	43	42	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	-0.03	-12	18	-30	14.7	12.3	2.35	13.7	15.1	-1.39
Jevon Carter	22	22	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.16	-8	14	-22	14.7	12.9	1.79	16.6	13.9	2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.26,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 109, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.65,0.83,1	91.7%
MIA 72, CHI 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.3,0.35,0.47,0.31,0.46,0.44,0.91,1	91.1%
LAL 84, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.32,0.3,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	91.1%