NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	11.4 [31]		MVP	Pascal Siakam (TOR): +37.4%
Toronto Raptors	115		Comeback	13.8 [209]		LVP	Derrick White (BOS): -26.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Nesmith	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.11	0.15	0.02	8	76%	0.24	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Sam Hauser	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	6	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Daniel Theis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	10	54%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	12	38%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Grant Williams	-0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.01	13	52%	0.12	4	-0.27	7	86%	0.03
Marcus Smart	-0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.17,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21	-0.10	-0.12	-0.02	25	47%	0.03	7	-0.24	9	67%	-0.09
Derrick White	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,-0.06,-0.12,-0.27	-0.07	-0.22	-0.02	16	42%	-0.20	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.41,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.4,0.37	0.37	0.19	0.20	0.01	29	61%	0.40	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.09
OG Anunoby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	12	58%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.00	9	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Boucher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	9	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	10	32%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	13	48%	0.08	4	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	12	44%	-0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.06
Scottie Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	12	42%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	30.1	14.7	25.2	2.5	32.3	1.6	14.2	146.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +4.5%

BOS -9.6%

TOR +11.9%

TOR +39.1%

TOR +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.0	14.9	14.5	105.7	107.5	110.8
season	14.9	14.9		112.2	111.3
opponent	14.8	14.7		109.9	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	15.7	15.0	13.5	16.2	14.2	15.0
TOR	15.0	12.6	14.2	18.8	14.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	29	30	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.04	6	-9	15	15.2	14.9	0.35	16.8	14.2	2.58
Sam Hauser	40	39	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.09	2	-5	7	15.6	14.5	1.12	16.6	13.9	2.69
Payton Pritchard	57	55	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.18	-4	1	-5	15.2	14.6	0.60	16.2	13.6	2.59
Aaron Nesmith	66	67	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.03	2	-5	7	15.3	14.4	0.89	15.3	14.2	1.17
Derrick White	84	86	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-5	7	14.9	15.3	-0.46	14.5	16.4	-1.83
Grant Williams	80	82	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.55	-1	-2	1	14.3	17.0	-2.66	14.1	17.6	-3.46
Marcus Smart	80	81	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.47	-8	5	-13	14.7	15.6	-0.88	14.2	17.2	-3.02
Daniel Theis	84	84	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.43	-11	8	-19	15.1	14.4	0.69	14.2	17.4	-3.22

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
OG Anunoby	82	80	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.53	9	-6	15	14.7	15.6	-0.96	14.8	15.3	-0.42
Thaddeus Young	55	55	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-9	21	14.9	14.9	-0.03	15.1	14.8	0.36
Fred VanVleet	83	83	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.51	3	0	3	14.3	16.9	-2.54	14.4	17.0	-2.56
Pascal Siakam	93	93	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	0	3	15.3	12.5	2.77	15.4	11.6	3.80
Gary Trent Jr.	78	75	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.52	-10	13	-23	14.7	15.4	-0.65	14.8	15.4	-0.66
Precious Achiuwa	55	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	-3	9	15.5	14.3	1.24	15.4	14.5	0.93
Chris Boucher	29	29	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	1	1	15.2	14.8	0.46	14.3	15.2	-0.84
Scottie Barnes	60	60	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.03	-10	13	-23	15.0	14.8	0.14	15.1	14.8	0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.35,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.54,0.39,0.36,0.69,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 100, IND 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.44,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.09,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.66,0.91,1	90.0%
POR 113, IND 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.71,0.78,0.98,1	89.0%
CHI 108, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.14,0.21,0.24,0.09,0.46,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.58,1	89.0%